736
FXAK69 PAFG 191446
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
646 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
NORTH SLOPE, WITH 50S AND 60S IN COASTAL AREAS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PARTS OF
THE BROOKS RANGE EVERY DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR TODAY SPREADING INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE FROM SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT BUT WILL RECOVER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR EARLY
AND ESPECIALLY MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL WIDELY BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON FLATS WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER NORTH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST SPOTS IN
THE LOW 60S FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH.
- HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
GALENA/RUBY SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN CONTINUE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY BUT RETURN TO BEING ISOLATED.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN THE YK DELTA AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TOTALS
WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.25".
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S ALONG
THE COAST AND 60S/70S IN THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.
- EXPECT NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND
NEAR 80 THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN DROP ON SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BE MORE
PREDOMINANT IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A BROAD, SOUTH-MOVING 561 DM UPPER LOW AT 500 MB OCCUPIES THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA, WITH RIDGING IN NORTHWEST CANADA EDGING ITS
WAY WESTWARD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. AT 850 MB, TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY AROUND 8 C IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING
AND WILL FURTHER RISE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY BE AROUND 5 TO 10 F ABOVE NORMAL, BUT A COLD
ARCTIC TROUGH/FRONT NORTHWEST OF ALASKA WILL MOVE IN BY LATE
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, IT WILL BRING WITH IT
A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION, BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND DROP
HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WITH THE MORE INLAND
AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY. THESE EFFECTS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH THE
TROUGH/FRONT EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE, SAVE COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S, MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S
FOR HIGHS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. FORT YUKON
AND THE YUKON FLATS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY,
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR WHERE SEVERAL J/KG OF SURFACE-
BASED CAPE AND LIS IN THE −1 TO −3 C RANGE EACH DAY. SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STORMS
SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR COULD LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY LASTING TO NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS CONTINUE TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE STATE. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
FOR SCATTERED, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO
STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEKEND AS PEOPLE PLAN TO GO OUTSIDE AND
ENJOY THE SUMMER SOLSTICE ACTIVITIES. AS WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS,
GUSTY WINDS, STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO
LIGHTNING, WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY
WINDS.
ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 70S TODAY, THEN POTENTIALLY SEEING A FEW SPOTS
REACH THE UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 30% TO 40%, THERE WILL BE A FEW
POCKETS OF 20% TO 25% IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WELL ESTABLISHED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND A TROUGH DIPS SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. DESPITE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
STARTING ON MONDAY, THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND MODEST
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTS THE
ARCTIC TROUGH AND KODIAK ISLAND LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
REPEATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ON MONDAY, CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. MODEL
DIFFERENCES GROW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH ARE RELATED TO HOW
MODELS HANDLE THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW PHASES WITH A SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. EPS GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
ADVERTISED A FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH THE CURRENT WEST COAST CIRCLING
AROUND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW AND PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AS A POTENT EASTERLY WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO LOSE DEFINITION OF WHAT WERE INITIALLY TWO
DISTINCT CLOSED LOWS, WHICH SEEMS LESS LIKELY TO ME. EITHER WAY, THE
RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH,
DISPLACING ARCTIC TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE BRINGING A TREND
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH IT AS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
CHANCES BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 233 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2026/
HYDROLOGY
AFTER A WET WEEK ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE, WATER LEVELS
IN THE RIVERS ARE RECEDING. WE HAVE CANCELLED OR EXPIRED ALL
FLOOD HAZARDS AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. RIVERS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ934>945-947-953.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
DS
EXTENDED - EK
FIRE WEATHER - SANTIAGO
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