561
FXAK69 PAFG 192312
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
312 PM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGION FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT, DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S; WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TANANA VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS EXPECTING HOT
AND DRY WEATHER, AND THUNDERSTORMS, TO IMPACT YOUR WEEKEND IN THE
CENTRAL REGION. FOR FOLKS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND
POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. MARINERS
NAVIGATING THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR PT. HOPE/PT. LAY SHOULD
BE AWARE OF SOUTHWESTERLY STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR- GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS, THINK 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGHS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S, TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUED.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
TANANA VALLEY, WITH AN EXPANSION LIKELY TO THE WESTERN AK RANGE
INCLUDING MCGRATH. FURTHER NORTH WE WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH AN UPTICK IN THE YUKON FLATS SUNDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. AS YOU MOVE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE INTERIOR, ANTICIPATE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, LIKELY
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT STARTING IN THE NORTH SLOPE,
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
HELPING TO BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST.
- EXPECT NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND
NEAR 80 THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN DROP ON SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE AND WILL BE MORE
PREDOMINANT IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE ON SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AS OF 230PM AKDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE REGION, WITH THE MAIN CONGLOMERATE
OF STRIKES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ALCAN BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS FORTYMILE FOLLOWING THE TANANA RIVER
VALLEY, LIKELY BRINGING AN EXCITING EVENING TO THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGIONS ARE ALSO
SEEING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY, WITH A WESTWARD
EXPANSION INTO THE LOWER TANANA VALLEY AND WESTERN AK RANGE.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS REMAINS IN LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY REACHING NEAR 40 MPH.
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
NORTH SLOPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CORRESPONDINGLY BE AROUND 5 TO
10 F ABOVE NORMAL, BUT A COLD ARCTIC TROUGH/FRONT NORTHWEST OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE IN BY LATE TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE, IT WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION, BRISK
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND DROP HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC INTO THE 30S AND
40S, WITH THE MORE INLAND AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY.
THESE EFFECTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, SAVE COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
THE 50S AND 60S, MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. FORT YUKON AND THE YUKON FLATS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C.
FIRE WEATHER
PRIMARY THREATS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE:
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
- SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER.
- A DRY ARCTIC COLD FRONT IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF TANANA.
TOUCHING ON THUNDERSTORMS FIRST, EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TANANA VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH AN EXPANSION WEST
TOWARD MCGRATH/WESTERN AK RANGE, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THESE
STORMS WILL FAVOR FORMATION OVER TERRAIN AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING,
OFFERING AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR WETTING RAIN UNDERNEATH THE PARENT
STORM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE STORMS COULD BRING GUSTS
TO 35-45MPH, HELPING FLAME UP ANY HOLDOVERS OR NEW STARTS FROM A
PLETHORA OF LIGHTNING; THIS WILL BE THE HEAVIEST LIGHTNING WEEKEND
SO FAR THIS FIRE SEASON.
REGARDING WARM/DRY, THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL FAVOR THE YUKON FLATS, WITH RH IN CRITICAL VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT. AS YOU MOVE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE YUKON FLATS
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S, WITH RH
LIKELY DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN FAVORED AREAS. ONE
POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, BELOW 15
MPH, OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, OUTFLOW
COULD BRING ERRATIC GUSTS TO 35 TO 45MPH. KEEP A SHARP LOOKOUT.
ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SATURDAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATE A WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND SWITCH IN THE WESTERN REGION, WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
OF TEMPERATURES BUT A DECREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THERE IS A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR THESE DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT, LIKELY
HOLDING NEAR THE YUKON RIVER CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE WILL
SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. WE HAVE CANCELLED OR
EXPIRED ALL FLOOD HAZARDS AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
RIVERS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH CHANCES MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE/NORTHERN ALCAN
BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND YK DELTA THROUGH THE WEEK ARE ALSO
LIKELY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR, EASTERN/CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE, AND WHITE MOUNTAINS, WITH CHANCES EXPANDING TO THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT OF THE ARCTIC TROUGH, HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE TANANA
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO THE LOW 70S/UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ934>945-947-953.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
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