425
FXAK69 PAFG 201450
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
650 AM AKDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
NORTH SLOPE, WITH 50S AND 60S IN COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE FROM THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT BUT WILL RECOVER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR EARLY AND ESPECIALLY MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGHS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE. FURTHER NORTH WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH AN UPTICK IN THE YUKON
FLATS SUNDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE FAVORED MOVING INTO EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON ANY EXACT
RAINFALL TOTALS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND LOWER YUKON VALLEYS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- AN ARCTIC FRONT EDGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
- NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 TODAY BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 50S SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANT IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS
RANGE ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 554 DM UPPER-LOW AT 500 MB IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING SEA AND IS HELPING TO BRING SOME SPARSE SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. A WARM AIR MASS DOMINATES MOST OF INTERIOR ALASKA, WITH
EXTENSIVE RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB THIS MORNING ARE
AROUND 10 TO 12 C OVER THE EASTERN/CENTRAL INTERIOR AND 8 TO 10 C
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND COULD RISE BY 2 TO 3 C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH THE YUKON FLATS, WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT, POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
BUT THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE 40S AND
50S WITH AN ARCTIC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BY SUNDAY,
EVEN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH SLOPE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS
FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S INTO THE
40S. ALONG THE FRONT, BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY NARROW, LIMITING THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
PERIOD AROUND 6 HOURS LONG. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG. THESE EFFECTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT EXITING THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTIVE INDICES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND MINIMUM LIS
WIDELY IN THE −1 TO −3 C RANGE. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RESULTANTLY BE POSSIBLE OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH SLOPE WILL BE EAST OF THE
DALTON HIGHWAY AND IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVING WITH FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THEY
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, EVEN AT SOME DISTANCE WITH SPREADING
OUTFLOWS. STORMS TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL AS LATE AS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY. MOVING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
WITH MOIST FLOW BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A GULF LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE STATE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT LINGER OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND WITH ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED FROM THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE YK DELTA, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED YESTERDAY
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT, RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS WEEKEND AS EVERYONE ENJOYS THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
ACTIVITIES. THOSE WHO PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FAIRLY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT ELEVATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AT THE UPPER LEVELS, STORMS THAT
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY SEE CONSISTENT WETTING RAINS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS, HELPING TO LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR PEAK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 30
TO 40%, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER KOYUKUK
VALLEY SEEING VALUES NEAR 25%. AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE SEES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTON
SOUND COAST, KOTZEBUE SOUND, AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. WE HAVE CANCELLED OR
EXPIRED ALL FLOOD HAZARDS AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
RIVERS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT COME MIDWEEK,
WITH ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A H5 LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE SURROUNDS HIGHER PWATS AROUND THAT 120-150% OF NORMAL
RANGE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING WITH IT STEADIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. THIS CORRIDOR OF STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TO
FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS THE A
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LIFTS NORTH. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SETUP
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS
AREA TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE, FORTYMILE COUNTRY, AND UPPER TANANA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHERE COVERAGE PEAKS
DIURNALLY WHERE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXIST. WHILE TEMPERATURES
SEE A COOLING TREND IN THESE REGION GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE
AND LEADING TO TEMPERATURES SEE A WARMING TREND. WHILE THE H5 LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF OUR NEXT H5 LOW BUILDING IN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ934>947-951>953.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
DS
EXTENDED - MACKAY
FIRE WEATHER - SANTIAGO
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