682
FXAK69 PAFG 202307
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 PM AKDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR THE INTERIOR, HOT AND DRY CONTINUES FOR THE SOLSTICE WEEKEND,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE
SIMPLE MESSAGE IS KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY, WATCH FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, AND STAY HYDRATED. ALONG THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE, AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING ASHORE SATURDAY, BRINGING A LOW STRATUS
LAYER, COOLER WINDS, AND 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE
MARINE ZONES, IMPACTING AVIATION AND MARITIME OPERATIONS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGHS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THRU SUNDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TANANA VALLEY AND
ALASKA RANGE. FURTHER NORTH WE WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, WITH AN UPTICK IN THE YUKON FLATS SUNDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE FAVORED MOVING INTO EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON ANY EXACT
RAINFALL TOTALS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S.
- THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND LOWER YUKON
VALLEYS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- AN ARCTIC FRONT EDGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
- NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 TODAY BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 50S SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANT IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS
RANGE ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
STARTING OUT SATURDAY MORNING, A FEW FEATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE STATE. STARTING IN THE NORTH AN ARCTIC FRONT WAS MAKING
LANDFALL, EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOME
RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE COAST, WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER BRINGING IFR TO MOST OF THE WESTERN COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL COME INTO PLAY MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BECOMING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR. SECOND, A CLOSED LOW WAS JUST WEST OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE, DRIFTING SOUTH, MERGING WITH A
SYSTEM IN THE WEST GULF OF ALASKA. LASTLY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR, HELPING TO BRING
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
MOVING INTO IMPACTS, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A HEAVY LIGHTNING DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY/FORTYMILE, THESE SYSTEMS
IN PARTICULAR ARE SLOW MOVING, STICKING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
MOVING WEST AND NORTH TOWARDS FAIRBANKS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CROP UP. SUNDAY, MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LIKELY SHIFTS A BIT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
NORTHEAST INTO THE YUKON FLATS.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY REMAINS OVER MOST
OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE, FROM MCGRATH THROUGH
FAIRBANKS/TANANA VALLEY INTO FORTY MILE. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE HEAVIEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS FIRE SEASON. SUNDAY
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR, WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENSION INTO THE YUKON FLATS.
TOUCHING ON TEMPS/RH, FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SUNDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR PEAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 30 TO 40%, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUKON FLATS
AND UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY SEEING VALUES NEAR 25%. AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SEES RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT
OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE
NORTON SOUND COAST, KOTZEBUE SOUND, AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. WE HAVE
CANCELLED OR EXPIRED ALL FLOOD HAZARDS AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. RIVERS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
LOCATIONS OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CAUSE THE
AXIS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THE FIRST LOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS LOW HAS ACCESS TO A PLUME OF MOISTURE BRINGING AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND/OR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN ITS POSITION ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
INTERIOR. IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE INTERIOR, DAILY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION
THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. EVEN IF LOWER ENDS OF EXPECTED
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE INTERIOR, DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA, IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR, AS WELL AS ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTH, BUT NOT BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW EMERGES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE
GENERAL PATTERN STARTS TO LOOK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER ALASKA
TODAY.
SCHLEZINGER
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ929-930-934>947-951>953.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
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