107
FXAK69 PAFG 211452
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
652 AM AKDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S IN THE INTERIOR, WITH 50S AND 60S ON THE
WEST COAST, AND 40S AND 50S ON THE NORTH SLOPE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
BECOME LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR BY MIDWEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE FAVORED MOVING INTO MIDWEEK,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON ANY EXACT RAINFALL
TOTALS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM AND LOWER YUKON VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
ANOTHER FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
- NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS WILL SEE MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE
50S OR LOW 60S TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RECOVERING INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S BY TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY IN THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE/EASTERN NORTH SLOPE TODAY AND MOVING
THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WARM BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED IN THE YUKON FLATS,
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 C ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH, THE NORTH
SLOPE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. EVEN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WHICH WERE RECENTLY IN THE 70S WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS FALL
INTO THE 50S, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S INTO THE LOW 50S.
A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT WILL BRING
RENEWED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH KOTZEBUE SOUND.
CONVECTIVE INDICES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY, WITH SEVERAL
HUNDRED JOULES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND MINIMUM LIS WIDELY IN THE
−1 TO −3 C RANGE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THIS WILL YIELD
ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE INTERIOR AND THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE / BROOKS RANGE.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVING WITH FAIRLY WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THEY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, EVEN AT SOME DISTANCE WITH
SPREADING OUTFLOWS. MOVING INTO MONDAY, THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER, FORTYMILE COUNTRY, AND EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA WILL
GRADUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY. THIS
COMBINED FEATURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH ROBUST MOISTURE
ADVECTION BY MIDWEEK, WITH THE ALASKA RANGE, WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND
FORTYMILE UPLANDS SEEING POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN.
IN THE TANANA VALLEY, ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BE LOWER, BUT THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FEW QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING IN AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN RECENT FIRE STARTS.
FIRE WEATHER
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND TOWARDS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. MONDAY
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE YK DELTA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE
WILL BE WETTING RAINS. WITH BROAD SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR, BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE. THESE
WETTING RAINS WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MIN RH VALUES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WHILE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
SEES MIN RHS ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND. AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
SEWARD PENINSULA NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED
FARTHER INLAND. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE YUKON FLATS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTON SOUND COAST, KOTZEBUE SOUND, AND WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
NO CHANGE SINCE LAST UPDATE
WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. WE HAVE
CANCELLED OR EXPIRED ALL FLOOD HAZARDS AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. RIVERS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LOCATIONS OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL CAUSE THE AXIS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THE FIRST LOW IS
ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS LOW HAS ACCESS TO A PLUME OF MOISTURE
BRINGING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND/OR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN ITS POSITION ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
INTERIOR. IF MORE MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE INTERIOR, DAILY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION THAN
WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. EVEN IF LOWER ENDS OF EXPECTED
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE INTERIOR, DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA, IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR,
AS WELL AS ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE SOUTH, BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
LOW EMERGES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE GENERAL PATTERN
STARTS TO LOOK SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER ALASKA TODAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ929-930-934>947-951>953.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
DS
EXTENDED - SCHLEZINGER
FIRE WEATHER - SANTIAGO
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