898
FXAK69 PAFG 221415
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 AM AKDT MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
MONDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CONVECTION
IS OUT FOR AREAS AROUND MCGRATH TO FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE AND SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BRINGING IN STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND PUSHING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR ALONG WITH THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES OF SMALL
RIVERS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WHERE TEMPERATURES AROUND
80F CONTINUE MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS UP TO 85F ON TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LESSENS AND MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A FRONT TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST BRINGS HIGH RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.
- AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BRIEFLY SWELL, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH THROUGH ISABEL PASS AND UP TO AROUND 35 MPH THROUGH WINDY
PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE ISOLATED BUT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS
RANGE VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVER
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF RIDGING OVER THE
MAINLAND OF ALASKA WITH AN ARCTIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF US AND A
551 DECAMETER LOW IN THE GULF. THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT, BRINGING WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY, AS WELL AS A CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN FROM UTQIAGVIK IN THE MORNING TO DEADHORSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MORE INFLUENTIAL FEATURE IS THE LOW IN THE GULF. ON MONDAY IT
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS WELL. THE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER YUKON AND
MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN/FORTYMILE REGION
APPEAR MORE STATIONARY AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHILE STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST REGION SHOULD TRACK EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY INCREASING STORM LONGEVITY AND
THE AREA LIGHTNING COULD REACH. BEYOND THE THUNDERSTORMS, MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM, SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
TUESDAY, THE LOW IN THE GULF SENDS A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ALONG WITH IT, AS IT TRAVELS NORTH INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN, SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL BE GUSTY, UP TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH, WITH THE PEAK LOOKING
TO BE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES
STRATIFORM BEHIND THE FRONT, AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP
WITH TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.50" IN THE ALASKA RANGE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN. AS A RESULT THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDER
BECOMES ANGLED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND SOUTHERLY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WILL BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH SLOPE REGIONS.
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL, ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. THE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE, AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER YUKON TO THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL GET COOLER AND
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS
FIRE WEATHER
FOLLOWING YET ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
YESTERDAY WITH OVER 6000 CG LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ALASKA AND THE
YUKON, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONVECTION CORRIDOR WILL EXTEND
FROM THE ALCAN BORDER WEST TO FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHWEST TO THE Y-K
DELTA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FORTYMILE
COUNTRY TO MCGRATH, WHERE ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 1000 TO 2200 AKDT. STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADIER RAINFALL
RATES AND A SWATH OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. AS
THE FRONT PASSES, CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL WORK TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND RAISE RH VALUES, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHERE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ROUGHLY BETWEEN MCGRATH AND BETTLES BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH PRELIMINARY
TOTALS AROUND 0.10-0.50", LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE ALASKA RANGE CLOSER
TO 0.50-1.50". PRECIPITATION TOTALS ELSEWHERE JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS
SOUTHERN INTERIOR REGION WILL SEE TOTALS CLOSER TO A T-0.10".
WIDESPREAD CLOUD BUILDING IN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND Y-K DELTA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
EVEN MORE SO COME NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE LIMITED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OUTSIDE
OF A CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TO NE BROOKS RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD, THAT FRONT IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LOOKS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE STEADIER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTHWEST TO THE Y-K
DELTA. TEMPERATURES, WHILE HOLDING STEADY AT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY COOL BY THE WEEKEND AS
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING BUILDING IN OUT OF THE WEST.
HYDROLOGY
A FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE STATE THIS WEEK. AS THIS
FRONT PROGRESSES, IT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5" TO 1" AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS >2" POSSIBLE WILL COMBINE WITH GLACIAL RUNOFF TO RESULT IN
RISING MAINSTREAM RIVER LEVELS AROUND THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK. RAPID RISES OF SMALLER RIVERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THIS FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND BECOME RELATIVELY STATIONARY, ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPWARDS OF 1" OR MORE IS EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AREA NEAR MCGRATH AND LAKE MINCHUMINA FOR
THIS EVENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA PROGRESSIVELY MOVES FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE YK DELTA AND ALASKA RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST
OFF OF THE GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, BUT WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A NEW PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE HOLD
ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES UP THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND INTO
THE BERING SEA. WHERE THIS LOW ENDS UP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW,
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS LOW TRACKING EAST INTO BRISTOL
BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS NEW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND CONTINUED SHOWERS TO
THE MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ935>945-947-951>953.
PK...NONE.
TROYKE
MACKAY - FIRE WEATHER
LEWIS - HYDROLOGY
SANTIAGO - EXTENDED
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