629
FXAK69 PAFG 222255
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 PM AKDT MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOOKING TO SETTLE IN AS THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING WEST FROM THE SE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AREAS WEST OF THE
FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST. IN ADDITION, THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TAPPING INTO A DECENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE
THAT WILL BE DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD 0.5" TO 1" OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNT POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO BE HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS WITH VALUES IN THE
MID 80S EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LESSEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
- THE FRONT TRACKING FROM EAST TO WEST BRINGS HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
- AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BRIEFLY SWELL, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH THROUGH ISABEL PASS AND UP TO AROUND 35 MPH THROUGH WINDY
PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TODAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER YUKON VALLEY.
- THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR, ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, BEFORE CLEARING BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS
RANGE VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THE SAME AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STALLING COLD
FRONT.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE CLEAR AND CALM. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A BUILDING E-W
ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOWS A SWATH OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SLOWLY
STARTING TO BUILD AHEAD OF SCATTERED SHORTWAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, TODAY. THE
MAIN DRIVER OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW IS FROM A PROMINENT LOW THAT HAS
SET UP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLANDS. THIS LOW HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ITS
STRENGTH DUE TO SOME ENTRAINMENT OF ENERGY FROM A PREVIOUS LOW IN
THE BERING, WHO'S ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP AROUND THE MAIN
LOW AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ALONG THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE THE MAIN LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER, LONGER LIVED STORMS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE FRONT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND FNSB SHOW CAPE
POTENTIAL TO BE 800-1000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THIS LOW IN
THE GULF WILL BE TAPPING INTO AN ANONYMOUSLY WET ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE ON
TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1.0"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2" POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED AND STALL AROUND
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT. AREAS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CURRENT
POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH,
WESTWARD TOWARD THE YK DELTA.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER LOW
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY
STALL IN THE BERING WITH THE RIDGE BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS WILL SET UP A SUBTLE BLOCKING PATTERN
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS, WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
SEE LIGHTNING IN THE SE INTERIOR AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. WE ARE
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN INTERIOR, PROMPTING RED FLAG WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC. WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 60S AND 70S EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR. THE DRIEST AREAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE YUKON FLATS WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS 20%.
ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE MIN RHS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 TO 30% RANGE.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE AND SPREAD WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADIER PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FOR THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ALASKA RANGE.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE UP TO 1" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AS HIGH AS 2". AS THE FRONT
PASSES, THIS CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAISE RHS FOR THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE INTERIOR FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MCGRATH
WEST TOWARDS THE YK DELTA, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE FRONT
WEAKENS, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE STATE, ALLOWING FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR.
HYDROLOGY
A FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE STATE THIS WEEK. AS THIS
FRONT PROGRESSES, IT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5" TO 1" AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS > 2"
POSSIBLE WILL COMBINE WITH GLACIAL RUNOFF TO RESULT IN RISING
MAINSTREAM RIVER LEVELS AROUND THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THIS WEEK. RAPID RISES OF SMALLER RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THIS FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND BECOME RELATIVELY STATIONARY, ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPWARDS OF 1" OR MORE IS EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AREA NEAR MCGRATH AND LAKE MINCHUMINA FOR
THIS EVENT.
FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR MAINSTREAM RIVERS IN THE AFFECTED
AREAS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ON THURSDAY JUNE 25TH THERE WILL BE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST
AS WELL AS NORTH EAST ALASKA, WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. AS SUNDAY
APPROACHES THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS ALASKA’S
COASTLINE BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL REGION OF OUR
STATE. THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY BETWEEN
MCGRATH AND BETTLES ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS UPCOMING THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY. CONTINUED WARMTH, AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEST OF
THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. EAST
OF THE FRONT MORE CLOUDY AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION BROUGHT ON BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
RESULTS IN A COOLER ATMOSPHERE. NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN WEST OF
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
REACHING ABOUT 35 MPH BETWEEN CAPE LISBURNE AND THE BERING STRAIT.
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW MOVES
EAST FROM THE BERING SEA TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TOWARDS THE END
OF THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE TEMPERATURES START WARM AROUND 60 DEGREES THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY AND LIKELY TO COOL AS THE FRONTAL PASSES THROUGH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ935>945-947-951>953.
PK...NONE.
TWOMBLY
LEWIS - FIRE WX
DONNER - EXTENDED
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