989
FXAK69 PAFG 232329
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE HEAVY RAIN,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH DELTA JUNCTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE STILL ANTICIPATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE, WITH AN ESF
(HYDRO OUTLOOK) ISSUED GOING OVER FURTHER DETAILS AND IMPACTS. AS
A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST LIKELY IN DELTA JUNCTION; HOWEVER,
GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 45 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
LIMITING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEFORE A WARMING TREND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST; MORE INFO
BELOW.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS A
FRONT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PROLIFIC LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL,
AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ALASKA RANGE,
WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT FOR ISABEL PASS AND NEAR 35 MPH FOR WINDY
PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR,
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER YUKON
AND MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK.
- AS WINDS IN THE BERING BECOME SOUTHERLY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG CREEP BACK TOWARDS ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND,
THE NORTON SOUND AND BERING STRAIT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS
RANGE VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA.
- A TROUGH BRINGS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 553 DECAMETER LOW IN THE
GULF WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT WILL BE TRAVELING
WESTWARD OVER THE STATE, BRINGING LOTS OF RAINFALL TO THE INTERIOR
TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. UPWARDS OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN FOR THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY, TOTALING UP TO 2 OR MORE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. EVEN
THOUGH RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE, THERE ARE NO
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH PEOPLE DOING RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE, SHOULD
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR DUE TO
WEAK RIDGING BEING PUSHED TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND WEAKEN DUE TO ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS ALMOST NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL AS COOLING TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR.
RIDGING IN THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER YUKON TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
ON THURSDAY, THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL
INHIBIT THE RIDGE FROM BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AS THE LOW IN THE
GULF IS ON ITS WAY EAST, IT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTH SLOPE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DROPPING THEIR TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR, MORE LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUKON RIVER
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE INTERIOR, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MODERATING AS A SWATH OF
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE IS SHUNTED INTO THE REGION FROM A POTENT
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY HELPING WITH SUPPRESSION EFFORTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AK RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HERE WE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TOTALS NEAR 2 INCHES;
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AK RANGE. ONE NOTE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE,
WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MCGRATH/BETTLES
AND INTO THE YUKON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST LONGER TUESDAY
EVENING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST TOWARD MCGRATH
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE INTERIOR; EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH, AND AS THE AICC PUT IT SO ELOQUENTLY, PROLIFIC LIGHTNING.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND A BROAD TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO WESTERN
ALASKA, FORESHADOWING SOME RAIN, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IMPACTING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.
HYDROLOGY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, SERVING AS THE CATALYST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TOUCHING ON RAIN, ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT OF 1 TO 1.2 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 90 TH PERCENTILE FOR
PAFA THIS TIME OF YEAR) IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HITTING THE ALASKA RANGE, HELPING TO DRIVE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, ANTICIPATE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM STALLS OUT
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL FALL
THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY IMPACTING THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM INTO
MCGRATH.
LARGEST IMPACT WILL BE RAPID RISE IN SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS IN
PROMINENT MOUNTAIN DRAINAGES; HOWEVER, THE ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS MEANS THAT THESE RIVERS ARE STARTING LOW AND WILL
LIKELY NOT EXCEED MAJOR FLOOD STAGES. EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
TREES/DEBRIS IN RIVERS AS WELL.
NO MAJOR FLOODING OF MAINSTREAM RIVERS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLING
TREND AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE BERING SEA. FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT THREAT OF DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE. THIS
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL SUSTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK FOR THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, UNSEASONABLE WARMTH UNDER THE LEFTOVER RIDGE WILL
BRING UNUSUALLY HOT CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR
AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVES. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, AN INCOMING LOW-
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BRINGING THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL EXPAND FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE A SECOND STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE
BERING SEA INTRODUCES AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF RAIN AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-858.
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