539
FXAK69 PAFG 181328
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
528 AM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
A CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY COOL AND WET WEATHER PERSISTS TODAY
BEFORE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SETTLES IN OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
ALASKA ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS LIKELY OVER WESTERN ALASKA. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WESTERN CANADA AND WITH THE TROUGHING OUT
WEST, CREATES STRONG SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE STATE. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAP WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR, MOVING NORTH AND OUT
OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND
DELTA JUNCTION STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON ON
MONDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 MPH AND 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY/TUESDAY
COUPLED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MIN RHS MAY PRESENT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COOL AND WET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEF
POCKETS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT
SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
0.25".
- HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PARTS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND FROM THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY
NORTH TOWARDS THE BROOKS RANGE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BY
SUNDAY AS RIDING BUILDS OVER EASTERN ALASKA.
- AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
- A DRYING AND WARMING TREND SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND 50S/60S
ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA, MOVING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND MUCH SPOTTIER. LATER THIS
EVENING, A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS BRISTOL BAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND
DRY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWS
FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. AS A
RESULT, GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES STRENGTHEN THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH 55 TO 65 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S WHILE ALSO SUBSEQUENTLY DROPPING MIN RH
VALUES INTO THE 30 TO 40% RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT STILL REMAINS LOW.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO ADDITIONAL INCOMING SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA BREAKS DOWN, BUT THE EXACT
PLACEMENT FOR THESE STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. IN THE
MEANTIME, EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, NORTHERN INTERIOR, AND BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING COVERAGE INTO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST
ARCTIC PLAINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, EXPECT MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
NOT MUCH CONCERN IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, HOWEVER THERE
ARE A FEW THINGS OF NOTE. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS, GAP
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH POSSIBLE. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INCREASED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE CHINOOKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE AL-CAN BOARDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH MONDAY CONTINUING TO BE THE WARMEST/DRIEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY THEN, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT. WHILE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE YUKON
FLATS, MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT ON MONDAY.
BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN WITH
SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA, ALLOWING THE TROUGHING TO AMPLIFY. THIS RIDGE BREAKDOWN OVER
EASTERN ALASKA WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACT POSITIONING
OF THE STORMS AS IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
RIDGE BREAKDOWN, ALONG WITH THE TIME OF DAY AT WHICH THE BREAKDOWN
OCCURS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY, THE PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY TWO MAIN FEATURES, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA, AND A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA OVER THE
ALCAN BORDER AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EAST NEAR THE
RIDGE. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH AGAINST EACH OTHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE LOW INITIALLY PUSHES FURTHER AGAINST THE
RIDGE PULLING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES RAPIDLY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PUSHES AGAINST THE BERING LOW FROM THE SOUTH. THIS PUSH
COULD HELP SEPARATE THE LOW FROM WESTERN ALASKA AND PUSH THE LOW
TOWARDS SIBERIA, WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN ONCE MORE.
IT COULD ALSO PUSH THE LOW FURTHER NORTH SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PUSH THE LOW
MUCH AT ALL, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REGION COOLER AND WETTER THAN
SEASONAL. ALL OF THESE REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
CURRENTLY LIES WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW'S INFLUENCE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
SANTIAGO
TWOMBLY - FIRE WEATHER
STOKES - EXTENDED
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