037
FXAK69 PAFG 182252
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN WESTERN ALASKA WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM CHANCE FROM SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH INCREASED CHINOOK FLOW. WINDS THROUGH THE AK RANGE
PASSES WILL BE UPWARDS OF 65 MPH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUT WEST, A
LOW IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA PROLONGS RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. ANOTHER LOW THEN TAKES AIM AT THE WEST COAST TOWARDS
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WIND. IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE, SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN BRINGS THINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
YUKON FLATS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY, LOW
TO MID 80S ON MONDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE YUKON FLATS,
THEN COOLING INTO THE 60S AND 70S AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WHITE MTNS TODAY, LITTLE TO
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW, THEN ISOLATED STORMS ON
MONDAY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, MOVING NORTH TO ARCTIC VILLAGE
ON TUESDAY.
- SOUTH WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AK RANGE PASSES WILL BE UP TO 65
MPH THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. UP TO 55 MPH IN DELTA
JUNCTION.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST SPOTS AND
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE BERING STRAIT.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND FROM
THE YUKON RIVER NORTHWARD TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TOMORROW AND
MONDAY AROUND THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA.
- A LOW IN THE BERING MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WIND TO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY. SHOWERS AND A STORM
SHIFT TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PLAINS TOMORROW AND
MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 70S TO NEAR
80 IN THE PLAINS AND 50S/60S ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ON
TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO EASTERN ALASKA. THE BULK
OF OUR WET WEATHER WILL BE IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN ALASKA
AS STRONG CHINOOK FLOW KEEPS IT WARMER AND DRIER IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS STRONG CHINOOK FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AK RANGE GAP WINDS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN GUSTING TO AROUND 40
MPH AS OF 1PM ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH. NORTH OF THE AK RANGE, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 TOMORROW, THEN LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY, THEN A FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE YUKON FLATS AND BROOKS RANGE.
TROUGHING THEN TAKES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE NORTH SLOPE MAY BE SPARED FROM THE WETTEST WEATHER AND
REMAIN MILD FOR A BIT LONGER DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
NOT A TON OF CONCERN MOVING FORWARD BUT THE KEY POINTS ARE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE AK RANGE PASSES, GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH WITH RHS
DROPPING TO NEAR 30% IN ISABEL PASS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
STRONG CHINOOK FLOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 TOMORROW, THEN LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. ON MONDAY, ACTIVITY INCREASES
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, THEN A FRONT PUSHES MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE YUKON FLATS AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE ON
TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS, BROAD TROUGHING RETURNS WITH PLENTY OF RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN ALASKA REMAINS WET, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND FROM THE YUKON RIVER
NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS CHANCE SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
TOMORROW, THEN BACK TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON MONDAY. NONE OF
THESE DAYS LOOK TO BRING SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISKS.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
LIKELIHOOD FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE YK DELTA AND NORTON SOUND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, TURNING SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WINDY PASS. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA
BUT WITH INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
AND NORTH SLOPE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN MARGINAL WITH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OFF THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MUCH
OF THE STATE RESIDING WITHIN A RANGE OF THE LOW 50S TO THE LOW 70S.
THE YUKON FLATS WILL TREND WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE LOW TO THE WEST WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST BY
A RIDGE, SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLING TREND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
THE BERING LOOKS TO GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AND THERE'S A
CHANCE FOR A LOW TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARDS
THE BERING STRAIT, OR SOUTH TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. BUT THIS LOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO COME WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
(GUSTING HIGHER) AS WELL AS SOME HIGH WATER AND EROSION ALONG THE
COAST. THE THREAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MINOR, BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS FOR IMPACTS MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BIANCO
SRINIVASAN - EXTENDED FORECAST
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