905
FXAK69 PAFG 191342
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
542 AM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA TODAY WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE EXPERIENCES A WARMING/DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA REINFORCES SOUTHERLY CHINOOK
FLOW OVER THE STATE. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH THROUGH TODAY,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO MONDAY. OUT WEST, A LOW SITTING IN BRISTOL
BAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WELL INTO
NEXT NEXT. BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. WITH
THIS NEW PATTERN, AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE LIKELY. IN THE
MEANTIME, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S/LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AND SOME UPPER 80S IN THE YUKON
FLATS. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
- A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH CHANCES
RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND DELTA
JUNCTION CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE YK DELTA, SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA, AND KOBUK VALLEYS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.25" TO 0.50", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75" POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, ENCOMPASSING THE REST OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER LOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. MINOR COASTAL THREATS ARE POSSIBLE. (SEE
COASTAL SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION)
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
70S TO NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER WESTERN ALASKA TODAY AS A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN ALASKA. WITH THIS PATTERN, STRONG
SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO
SETTLE IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT TO SEE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR RISE INTO THE MID
70S/80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 70S/80S TOMORROW. THE WARMEST
SPOTS WILL BE IN THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WHERE HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 10 PM MONDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 TO 65 MPH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INVERSELY, A LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM BUT COULD RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75" POSSIBLE.
LOOKING TOWARDS MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA
STARTS TO BREAKDOWN AND ALLOWS FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE
STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH BROADENING TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL BRING A
RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, IN
ADDITION TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND BROOKS RANGE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST PAST TUESDAY AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY TRYING TO RESOLVE
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN ANOTHER BERING SEA LOW AND THE NORTH PACIFIC
HIGH PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS NEW BERING SEA LOW, WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS,
HOWEVER THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR NOW. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE DEVELOPING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE THREE MAIN FORECAST FEATURES THAT MAY IMPACT FIRE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST IS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE MORE BROADLY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO
65 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE PASSES. THESE STRONGER WINDS PEAK EARLY
SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND DELTA JUNCTION AREAS. THE NEXT IS
WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80F ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARCTIC PLAINS
MONDAY WITH HIGHS UP TO 85F IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND IN THE 85F
TO 90F RANGE FOR THE YUKON FLATS. AS THE HIGHER PRESSURE THAT
ALLOWED FOR THESE TEMPERATURES MOVES EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES ALONG THE YUKON FLATS.
TEMPERATURES FALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, CONDITIONS REMAIN WET ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, BECOMING LESS LIKELY AFTER MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN
IS ACTIVELY SHIFTING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY OVER THE BERING
SEA PUSHES INLAND AND A RIDGE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE MOVES EAST INTO CANADA. COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TWO FEATURES MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD COMPLICATE THE PATTERN
AND MAKE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN. THESE
FEATURES ARE A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA, BOTH AROUND MIDWEEK. THE
HIGH WORKS AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND TRIES
TO PUSH IT FARTHER NORTH OR EAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DUE TO THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY
OF THIS FEATURE, THIS NEXT SURFACE LOW COULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS
MANY DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT THE EXACT
DETAILS OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE ACTIVE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A
LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN BERING SEA
AROUND MIDWEEK. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARDS
THE BERING STRAIT, OR SOUTH TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WITH IT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH (GUSTING HIGHER) AS WELL AS SOME HIGH WATER AND EROSION ALONG
THE COAST. THE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, BUT
REGARDLESS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-847-849.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833-835.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ806-808.
PK...NONE.
SANTIAGO - SYNOPSIS, KEY MESSAGES, FORECAST ANALYSIS
STOKES - FIRE WEATHER, EXTENDED, COASTAL HAZARDS
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