251
FXAK69 PAFG 201355
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
555 AM AKDT MON JUL 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA
WHILE COOL AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND
ARCTIC PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS UPWARDS OF 55 TO 65
MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH ISABEL PASS AND DELTA
JUNCTION, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. INVERSELY, A
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY COOL THROUGH TUESDAY. A NEW PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE HOLD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA
BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR BROADSCALE TROUGHING AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AND A RETURN TO COOL AND
WET WEATHER ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A BERING
SEA LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY CAUSING MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH SURF
POSSIBLE. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW,
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HIGHS NEAR 85F TO 90F
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 60S/70S BY TUESDAY
ONWARDS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THE MOST
ACTIVE SPOTS WILL BE OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY AND OVER
THE YUKON FLATS TOMORROW.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS UPWARDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH THROUGH ISABEL PASS
AND DELTA JUNCTION LINGER THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE YK DELTA, SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA, & KOBUK VALLEYS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25"
TO 0.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75" ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
AND NULATO HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY.
- A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ARE
HIGH SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BUT IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN
MINIMAL. (SEE THE COASTAL SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION)
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAINS TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAINS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO GRADUALLY COOL BACK
INTO THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS
OVER EASTERN ALASKA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, SOUTHERLY CHINOOK
FLOW PERSISTS KEEPING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC PLAINS WARM AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 85F TO 90F
ARE EXPECTED IN THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ARCTIC PLAINS SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 80F. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT WEST IN THE
50S/60S. IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
THE SEWARD PENINSULA, EASTERN INTERIOR, AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WHILE NOT
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH ISABEL PASS AND
DELTA JUNCTION MAY CONTINUE TO GUST UPWARDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH THIS
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH NOON TODAY. AS
FOR WESTERN ALASKA, COOL AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO PUSH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA.
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA BREAKS DOWN AND GIVES
WAY TO BROADSCALE TROUGHING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER
THE STATE AND ALLOWS FOR A FRONT TO PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE YK DELTA. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10" TO
0.25" ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50"
POSSIBLE. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH, IT WILL ALSO HELP TO
INITIATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS TO PICK
BACK UP AGAIN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE OF NOTE WE WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY STRONG (AROUND 549 DM OR 997 MB AT THE
SURFACE), THIS SYSTEM MAY PRESENT MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS IN ADDITION
TO SOME POTENTIALLY HIGH SURF, HEAVY RAINS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT TRACK THE LOW TAKES, WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE "EXTENDED FORECAST" AND
"COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL" SECTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE AND
RIDGING OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THIS WILL CREATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH DELTA JUNCTION AND THE ALASKA RANGE,
SPECIFICALLY ISABEL PASS, THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WARMING AND
DRYING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE YUKON FLATS, FORTYMILE
COUNTRY, AND ARCTIC PLAINS WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 85F TO 90F WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS 25%. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND MIN RHS WILL RISE. A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA MID TO LATE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S
RETURN, WITH LOCALLY COLDER CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTH.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THURSDAY, THE FORECAST
IS ALREADY UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. GENERALLY COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IS
WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY AND WITH A HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THESE
FEATURES INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS AND
COULD PUSH THE CENTER OF THAT FEATURE WEST INTO SIBERIA, NORTH
TOWARDS THE ARCTIC OR EVEN FARTHER EAST OVER THE INTERIOR. A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER PRESSURE TO MORE EASILY
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR PROMOTING WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION WOULD PROMOTE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
WHICH IS TYPICALLY A RAINY PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE.
A MORE EASTERLY POSITION WOULD KEEP THE COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
WEST COAST. EXACT IMPACTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF
THE LOW, WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL
IMPACTS LATER THIS WEEK FROM A BERING SEA STORM. THE MAIN THINGS WE
ARE MONITORING ARE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH OF THESE. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE STORM DOESN’T
LOOK TO INTENSIFY TOO MUCH AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE WEST
COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG TO STAY AWARE OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.
CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT HIGH SURF AND
POTENTIALLY MINOR FLOODING. FORTUNATELY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-849.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ833-835.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ806-808.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-860.
SANTIAGO
LEWIS - FIRE WEATHER
STOKES - EXTENDED
BIANCO - COASTAL HAZARDS
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