368
FXAK69 PAFG 202337
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 PM AKDT MON JUL 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN ALASKA WHILE COOL AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES OUT WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 55 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH ISABEL PASS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. INVERSELY, A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEW PATTERN STARTS TO DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FOR BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE IN
OVER THE STATE. THE NEW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AND A RETURN TO COOL AND WET WEATHER ACROSS
THE INTERIOR BY MIDWEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A BERING SEA LOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
CAUSING SOME MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH SURF
BEING POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HIGHS NEAR 85F TO 90F
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 60S/70S BY TUESDAY
ONWARDS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THE MOST
ACTIVE SPOTS WILL BE OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY AND OVER
THE YUKON FLATS TOMORROW.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH THROUGH ISABEL
PASS LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, PARTICULARLY ISABEL PASS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE YK DELTA, SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA, & KOBUK VALLEYS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25"
TO 0.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75" ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
AND NULATO HILLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY
WEDNESDAY.
- A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ARE HIGH SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BUT
IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN MINIMAL. (SEE THE COASTAL SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION)
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAINS TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE
ARCTIC PLAINS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO GRADUALLY COOL BACK
INTO THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE 20S & 30S WILL BE IN STORE
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS
OVER EASTERN ALASKA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, SOUTHERLY CHINOOK
FLOW PERSISTS KEEPING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC PLAINS WARM AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 85F TO 90F
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE ARCTIC PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 80F THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT IN THE
WESTERN ZONES IN THE 50S/60S. IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA, EASTERN INTERIOR,
AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY,
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH ISABEL PASS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST
UPWARDS OF 55 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES & THE
TEMPERATURE COOLS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING FOR ISABEL PASS. AS FOR WESTERN ALASKA, COOL AND WET
WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND
BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO PUSH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND FRONTS
THROUGH THE AREA.
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA BREAKS DOWN AND GIVES
WAY TO BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER
THE STATE AND ALLOWS FOR A FRONT TO PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE YK DELTA. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10" TO
0.25" ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50"
POSSIBLE. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH, IT WILL ALSO HELP TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN INTERIOR, THE BROOKS RANGE, & THE SEWARD
PENINSULA, ONCE AGAIN, TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PICK BACK UP
AGAIN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE OF NOTE WE WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY STRONG (AROUND 550 DM OR 999 MB AT THE
SFC), THIS SYSTEM MAY PRESENT MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS IN ADDITION
TO SOME POTENTIALLY HIGH SURF, MODERATE-TO-HEAVY HEAVY RAINS, &
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TRACK THE LOW TAKES, WHICH REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT NOW, GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE SHIFTING THE TRACK A
BIT MORE SOUTH, MORE TOWARD THE YK DELTA REGION. MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE "EXTENDED FORECAST" AND "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE AND
RIDGING OVER THE EAST STILL PERSISTS. THIS IS CREATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH DELTA JUNCTION AND THE ALASKA RANGE, SPECIFICALLY
ISABEL PASS, THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE YUKON FLATS, FORTYMILE COUNTRY, AND
ARCTIC PLAINS WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 85F TO 90F THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS
25%. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND MIN RHS WILL
RISE. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY FOR THESE AREAS, AS WELL.
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA MID TO LATE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S
RETURN, WITH LOCALLY COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES FARTHER NORTH,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE 540 DECAMETER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
BEGIN TO BE PUSHED TO THE NORTHEAST BY RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST.
BETWEEN THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING TOWARDS THIS LOW MOVING UP AND OVER THE NORTH-PACIFIC HIGH
IN THE GULF. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND MIDDLE YUKON.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH IS LIKELY TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC PLAINS AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE/BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX ARE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN UTQIAGVIK AND KAKTOVIK. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH SLOPE
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES JUST
NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE INDICATION FOR AN ARCTIC TROUGH TO BEGIN
DIGGING DOWN FROM NORTHERN LATITUDES BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND SNOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY BREAKING UP
AS IT MOVES OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE INTERIOR BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL
IMPACTS LATER THIS WEEK FROM A BERING SEA STORM. THE MAIN THINGS WE
ARE MONITORING ARE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH OF THESE. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE STORM DOESN’T
LOOK TO INTENSIFY TOO MUCH AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR. THE WEST
COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS, BUT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW COULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MORE TOWARD THE YK
DELTA REGION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS TO STAY UP-TO-
DATE & AWARE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.
CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT HIGH SURF AND
POTENTIALLY MINOR FLOODING. FORTUNATELY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ806-808-833-835.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
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