629
FXAK69 PAFG 211429
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
629 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AND RAINY START TO THE DAY CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE YK DELTA. ALONG THE FRONT, A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON
FLATS AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. OUT WEST, COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY SUPPORTS
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A
NEW PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE BRINGING EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST COAST. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH
AS HIGH SURF ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THE MOST ACTIVE SPOTS WILL BE
OVER THE YUKON FLATS NORTH TOWARDS ARCTIC VILLAGE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ISABEL PASS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 55 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY PUSHES A FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50", ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
AND NULATO HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES
UNLIKELY WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
- A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST COAST. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH SURF AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, BUT IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN MINIMAL. (SEE THE COASTAL
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION)
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A BERING SEA LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES START TO GRADUALLY COOL BACK INTO THE 50S/60S
TODAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
COOL AND WET WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING AS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER EASTERN ALASKA HAS NOW MOVED
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN YUKON AND GIVEN WAY TO THE BROAD-SCALE
TROUGHING OUT WEST. WITH THIS PATTERN, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE STATE AND ALLOWS FOR A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONT TO PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE, FORTYMILE COUNTRY, AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. OUT WEST, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ALASKA. FOR THIS REGION,
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA, NORTHERN/EASTERN INTERIOR, AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE, HELPING TO INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ARCTIC PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS,
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE CAUSED BY THE
BUILDING NORTH PACIFIC HIGH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS WE LOOK TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BERING SEA LOW BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY STRONG (AROUND 545 DM OR 998 MB AT
THE SURFACE), THIS SYSTEM MAY PRESENT MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS
HIGH SURF ALONG THE YUKON DELTA, NORTON SOUND, AND FOR AREAS NORTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT. THERE'S INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM
TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY
EVENING, REACHING NORTON SOUND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE "EXTENDED FORECAST" AND "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. A LOW IN THE BERING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE STATE
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, CAUSING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING TO PERSIST, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL, AND MIN RHS TO RISE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE FIRST LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
TODAY, A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE, PROMPTING A WIND
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH
THROUGH ISABEL PASS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
A SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MIN
RHS WILL RISE DUE TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE UPWARDS OF 0.75-1.00" FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO GET MORE.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA BEHIND THE BERING SEA STORM SYSTEM. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAINS AND
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE/BROOKS RANGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF
FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS
BETWEEN UTQIAGVIK AND KAKTOVIK. BY SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE INTO THE
YUKON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM NORTHERN
LATITUDES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL STOP MOST OF THAT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FROM GETTING DOWN INTO THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE SHARPLY FOR NEXT MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER TO MOVE ARCTIC TROUGH INTO THE YUKON THEREBY CONTINUING
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL
IMPACTS LATER THIS WEEK FROM A BERING SEA STORM. WE ARE CONTINUING
TO MONITOR THE STORM'S TRACK AND STRENGTH, HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FACTORS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE YK DELTA REGION AS WELL AS MINOR
STORM INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 45 MPH (40 KTS) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF FOR
THE YUKON DELTA, NORTON SOUND, AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT
ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE WEST
COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849-850.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
SANTIAGO
LEWIS - FIRE WEATHER
MAIER - EXTENDED
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