044
FXAK69 PAFG 212318
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
318 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
TODAY HAS BEEN THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER RAINIER PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
THE YK DELTA. ALONG THE FRONT, A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON FLATS AND
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS TOWARD THE YUKON
BORDER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG THE ALCAN. OUT WEST, COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL
BAY SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A NEW PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE BRINGING EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST COAST. MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THE MOST ACTIVE SPOTS
WILL BE OVER THE YUKON FLATS NORTH TOWARDS ARCTIC VILLAGE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS TOWARD THE YUKON BORDER WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE ALONG THE ALCAN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
ISABEL PASS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
55-60 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY. A SHORT-LIVED RELATIVE LULL IN THE WINDS
IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP AGAIN.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW IN
BRISTOL BAY PUSHES A FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50", ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
AND NULATO HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES
UNLIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY, ONWARD.
- A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL SHOWERS
AND GUSTY PRIMARILY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST COAST. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH SURF AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, BUT IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN MINIMAL. (SEE THE COASTAL
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION)
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A BERING SEA LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY COOL BACK INTO THE
50S/60S TODAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE
20S/30S POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
COOL AND WET WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER EASTERN ALASKA HAS
MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN YUKON AND GIVEN WAY TO THE
BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING OUT WEST. WITH THIS PATTERN, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE STATE AND ALLOWS FOR A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT TO PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10"
TO 0.25" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE, FORTYMILE
COUNTRY, AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. OUT WEST, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
ALASKA. FOR THIS REGION, RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25"
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA,
NORTHERN/EASTERN INTERIOR, AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE, HELPING
TO INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE CAUSED BY THE BUILDING NORTH
PACIFIC HIGH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF
55-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY. A SHORT-LIVED RELATIVE
LULL IN THE WINDS IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. ADDITIONALLY,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS TOWARD THE YUKON BORDER WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE ALONG THE ALCAN.
THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS WE LOOK TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BERING SEA LOW BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY STRONG (AROUND
543 DM OR 996 MB AT THE SURFACE), THIS SYSTEM MAY PRESENT MINOR
COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF ALONG THE YUKON DELTA, NORTON
SOUND, AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING IN THIS STORM TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE COALESCING
AROUND THE LOW REACHING NORTON SOUND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND IN THE
"COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL" SECTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW IN THE BERING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY & ANOTHER BERING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT
PRIMARILY FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME, COOLING THINGS OFF &
INCREASING RH VALUES, BRINGING MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH FROM SW TO NE.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UPWARDS OF 0.75-1.25" FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED
TO GET THE MOST.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS PEAKING
OUT AS HIGH AS 55-60 MPH THROUGH ISABEL PASS FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RELATIVE LULL FROM LATE WED
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND THAT
AREA INTO THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL SUPPORTING RIDGING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING DOWN
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE DURING THIS TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH SLOPE. MOST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON THE SLOPE ARE LIKELY TO END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TRANSITION
TO SNOW BY THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WHILE CHANCES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, THE BAND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THEN
EVENTUALLY EXITS LATER THAT MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING, MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER SIBERIA COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WEST COAST.
A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC TROUGH, AND WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY IS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR IS LIKELY
TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LOWER ENDS OF THESE RANGES ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL IMPACTS LATER THIS WEEK FROM A BERING SEA LOW. WE ARE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE LOW’S TRACK AND STRENGTH. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COALESCING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE YK
DELTA REGION AS WELL AS MINOR STORM INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND THE
MID 990S MB IS EXPECTED BEFORE MOVING ASHORE INTO NORTON SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 45 MPH (40
KTS) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF FOR THE YUKON DELTA, NORTON SOUND, AND
AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NECESSARY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE WEST COAST FROM THE
YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
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