824
FXAK69 PAFG 221240
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
440 AM AKDT WED JUL 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
TODAY MARKS THE CONTINUATION OF A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA, AS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK GIVE
WAY TO RAINIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKING TO STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FRONT SITUATED OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS AS
A MORE ORGANIZED LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES ONSHORE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS INLAND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN REGIONWIDE.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW, MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS
HIGH SURF ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OVERALL. WHILE
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
IN NATURE GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING IN, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE LATER IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESSIVELY
BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC TROUGH WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE AND RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH,
ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONT SITUATED OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A BERING SEA LOW MOVES
INLAND.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.25-0.75" REGIONWIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND
1-2" IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND LOCALLY LIGHTER TOTALS AROUND
0.10-0.25" IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AROUND TOK AND NORTHWAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S TODAY DROPPING TO THE 50S/60S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PEAK
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH EXPECTED.
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
AND AT THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EAST OF FAIRBANKS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE 60S/70S.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, BREEZY WINDS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONT SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AHEAD OF A BERING SEA LOW MOVING
ONSHORE LATER TODAY.
- THAT BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO WESTERN ALASKA TODAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE WEST COAST,
WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUING TO CENTER AROUND HIGH SURF
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. SEE THE COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.25-0.75" REGIONWIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND
1-2" IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND 0.75-1.25" FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
NEAR MCGRATH AND NIKOLAI, ALONG WITH LOCALLY LIGHTER TOTALS
AROUND 0.10- 0.25" FOR THE NW ARCTIC COAST AND KOTZEBUE SOUND
REGION.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND, AS
TEMPERATURES HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30-45 MPH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND 20-30 MPH IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN ALASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN,
BREEZY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A FRONT SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT LAY.
- A LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALASKA FROM THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY, MEETING A COLDER AIRMASS
SITUATED OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
BROOKS RANGE ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH, SUPPORTING
A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN.
- THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE BROOKS RANGE, CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC
PLAINS, AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND
0.25-0.75" ARE EXPECTED IN THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH AROUND
0.10-0.40" FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND COAST.
LOCALLY LIGHTER TOTALS AROUND A T-0.10" ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE, AS TEMPERATURES SEE A COOLING TREND. WIND GUSTS
WILL PEAK LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AROUND 30-45 MPH REGIONWIDE,
STRONGEST IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND AROUND KAKTOVIK.
- WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK
SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ALASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX, GUSTY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT LIFTING NORHTEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
NORTH SLOPE AND THE YUKON, WITH A 994 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED AROUND 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND IN THE
BERING SEA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST,
WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA.
LATEST CAMS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, SHOWING IT MAINTAINING A
SIMILAR STRENGTH TO WHAT IT CURRENTLY IS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE NORTON SOUND. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE INTERIOR NORTON SOUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BUILD
INTO WESTERN ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN AND WIND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE INTERIOR LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ENCOMPASSES NORTHERN ALASKA. A FRONT STALLED OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC
WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
AS COLDER AIR FROM THE CHUCKHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS MEETS A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS
RANGE IN BETWEEN. THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EVEN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH, TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING FROM
UTQIAGVIK TO POINT LAY TODAY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND LOW STRATUS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY YESTERDAY WITH OVER 2000
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ALASKA AND THE YUKON,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND TO BEING MUCH MORE ISOLATED OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WORK
TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF CONVECTION.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN WEST TO EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND
FROM THE BERING SEA FOLLOWING THE EXITING LOW. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, SHOWING A BROAD 0.25-0.75" ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA AS DRIEST LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE NW ARCTIC COAST AND UPPER
TANANA VALLEY AROUND TOK AND NORTHWAY PICK UP AROUND A T-0.25".
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 1-2" WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
ALASKA RANGE. WHEN IT COMES TO POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE, WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THAT BEING
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS WHICH
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ACCUMULATE. WITH RESPECT TO FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE AMOUNTS, EXPECT THOSE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND FOCUSED
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SEEN AN INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ALASKA WITH THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING, WITH PEAK
GUSTS BEING 55 MPH IN WINDY PASS SOUTH OF HEALY, 58 MPH IN DELTA
JUNCTION, AND 60 MPH ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY NEAR DONNELLY
DOME. STRONG WINDS IN DELTA LATE LAST NIGHT ALSO LED TO ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST, PROMPTING A
SHORT-FUSE WIND ADVISORY WHICH WILL EXPIRE OR BE CANCELLED LATER
THIS MORNING. A LONGER-FUSE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE NORTH OF TRIMS CAMP ALONG THE RICHARDSON
THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BRIEF
LULL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, EXPECT WINDS THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES TO RAMP BACK UP LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS THAT LOW IN THE BERING SEA APPROACHES. THIS WIND
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WINDY PASS WHICH THE
DAY SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT TODAY. WINDS WITH THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL PEAK AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE STATE, WITH PEAK GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 30-45 MPH AND AROUND 20-30 MPH IN THE INTERIOR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPOTS. SEE THE COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING WITH THIS WIND
FOR OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE YUKON
DELTA NORTH TO THE KOTZEBUE SOUND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING FROM A BERING
SEA LOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS COALESCING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK TOWARDS THE YK DELTA REGION AS WELL AS MINOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND THE MID 990S MB IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MOVING ASHORE INTO NORTON SOUND. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 45 MPH (40 KTS) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF
FOR THE YUKON DELTA, NORTON SOUND, AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT ARE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE WEST COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA BEHIND THE BERING SEA STORM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
CLEARING SKIES AND SUNSHINE...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM NORTHERN
LATITUDES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN OVER
THE ARCTIC PLAINS. RAIN AND THEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST AND NORTH SLOPE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL STOP MOST OF THAT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FROM GETTING DOWN INTO THE INTERIOR. A BAND OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR AS THAT ARCTIC
TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
MIGHT LINGER INTO MONDAY IN THE FORTYMILE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
A LOW SHOULD FORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BEHIND IT ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. MINIMAL CONFIDENCE ATTM IN THIS
SOLUTION AND HOW LONG IT MIGHT LAST. WE EXPECT SOME CLEARING SKIES
WITH WARMING AND DRYING NEXT MONDAY, AND PERHAPS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT COULD MOVE DOWN AND
TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. CURRENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA HAS PLENTY
OF WETTING RAINS WITH IT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS PEAKING OUT AS HIGH AS 55-60 MPH THROUGH
ISABEL PASS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FUELS WERE MARGINAL FOR
SUPPORTING LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN THAT AREA. THESE WINDS MAY DROP
OFF ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA IN A
MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
FRIDAY, THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE HAD ANY RECENT DRYING.
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UPWARDS OF 0.75-1.25 INCHES FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75
INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-806-807-816-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ852-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
SYNOPSIS.......MACKAY
KEY MESSAGES...MACKAY
SHORT TERM.....MACKAY
LONG TERM......MAIER
FIRE WEATHER...MAIER
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