841
FXAK69 PAFG 231335
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
535 AM AKDT THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY INTO FRIDAY, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS
SUCH AS HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE YUKON DELTA WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS MORNING WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. WINDS HERE WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO FAR NORTHERN ALASKA, SUPPORTING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS, WITH A T-1" ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 1-5" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WORKING EAST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
60S/70S REGIONWIDE, AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE WITH RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH,
ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- AS A BERING SEA LOW MOVES INLAND TODAY INTO FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WINDS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND
BROADLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS WEST TO
EAST. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALASKA RANGE
PASSES WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH GUSTS
PEAKING ELSEWHERE AROUND 20-30 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, STRONGEST ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.25-0.75" REGIONWIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND
1-2" IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
- HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S/60S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE 60S/70S.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, BREEZY
WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A BERING SEA LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL AROUND THE INTERIOR NORTON
SOUND THIS MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE WEST COAST.
- WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE FOR MOST
COMMUNITIES THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA COAST REGION
UNTIL 4 PM TODAY FOR WATER LEVELS AROUND 1-2 FEET ABOVE THE
HIGHEST HIGH TIDE LINE. LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR.
- GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PEAK TODAY AROUND 30-45 MPH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND 20-30 MPH
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY TODAY BEFORE RISING HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND A T-0.10" FOR THE WEST COAST AND LOWER YUKON AND
AROUND 0.25-0.50" FOR THE REST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 1-2" IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, CONTINUING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND THE NORTON SOUND SOUTH TO
THE Y-K DELTA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND A T-0.10".
- AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO WORK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN,
BREEZY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND FOCUSED FROM THE NORTON SOUND NORTH
TO THE NW ARCTIC COAST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE Y-K DELTA.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALASKA FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY, MEETING AN
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. STEADIER RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY AS COLDER
AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
- THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS, WITH A
T-1" ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-5" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, THE SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO STICK TO ROADWAYS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ARCTIC FRONT AS IT PASSES OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE, AS TEMPERATURES SEE A COOLING TREND. WIND GUSTS
WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY UP TO AROUND 30-45 MPH REGIONWIDE,
STRONGEST IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND AROUND KAKTOVIK. WHERE SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS OVERLAP, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING UP FARTHER EAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS ON
TRACK TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN ALASKA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX, GUSTY WINDS, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 995 MB BERING SEA LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND INTERIOR NORTON SOUND MOVING
EAST, ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SIBERIA NORTHEAST
OVER THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE. THAT LOW IN THE BERING WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER TANANA AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THAT ARCTIC FRONT MEETS
THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR, RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
AND BROOKS RANGE WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA FOLLOWING THE EXITING
LOW, AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN REGIONWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRYING TREND WILL BE THE NORTON
SOUND SOUTH THROUGH THE Y-K DELTA WHERE A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS MORNING
WHERE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AS
OF 5 AM THURSDAY UP TO 70 MPH AT WINDY PASS AND 61 MPH NORTH OF
ISABEL PASS. WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING, REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL BE UPDATING
THESE WIND ADVISORIES BEFORE 7 AM. ACROSS THE WEST COAST, PEAK
WIND GUSTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO AROUND 50 MPH FOR
CHEVAK, HOOPER BAY, AND SCAMMON BAY, AND AROUND 40 MPH FOR THE
BERING STRAIT COAST AND AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STRONGEST WIND
FIELD IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
THE LOW MOVES INLAND, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-45 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF LIGHTER WINDS
BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS CORRIDOR. SEE THE COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION DAYS 1
AND 2 BELOW FOR DETAILS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WIND GUSTS WILL
PEAK TODAY AROUND 20-30 MPH WEST TO EAST, WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING ON FRIDAY, STRONGEST ACROSS THE TANANA
VALLEY AND AROUND EAGLE. FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE,
WINDS WILL RAMP UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
30-45 MPH. WHERE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS OVERLAP, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES DUE TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH MCGRATH EVEN SETTING A
NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL YESTERDAY OF 0.97". ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE INTERIOR, ALASKA
RANGE, AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE. IN THIS
AREA, WE ARE LOOKING AT AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN,
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE ALASKA RANGE AROUND 1-2" WITH HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW. WITH RESPECT TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH, BEST
ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH A T-1" ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-5" ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, THE SNOW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO STICK TO ROADWAYS. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT IF ANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH MORE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND
BROOKS RANGE GIVEN THE ARCTIC FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S FOR
MOST TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL TREND WARMER ON SATURDAY TO THE
60S/70S, AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER
OUR REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 AND 2...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM A BERING SEA LOW.
MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF FOR THE YUKON DELTA,
NORTON SOUND, AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ARE POSSIBLE.
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY WITH EACH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE IN
EASTERN NORTON SOUND, AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH
TIDE LINE. GENERAL WATER LEVEL RISES AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED FROM GOLOVIN TO NOME. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA COAST REGION UNTIL 4 PM TODAY FOR WATER
LEVELS 1-2 FEET ABOVE THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE LINE. LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION MAY OCCUR. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ROAD TO THE HOOPER BAY
AIRPORT, BUT SHOULD NOT INUNDATE THE AIRPORT OR THE ROAD.
FORTUNATELY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE WEST COAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
KIVALINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM NORTHERN
LATITUDES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THIS TROUGH. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS. RAIN AND THEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH SLOPE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL
STOP MOST OF THAT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FROM GETTING DOWN INTO THE
INTERIOR. A BAND OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE DOWN FROM THE BROOKS RANGE AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THAT
ARCTIC TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW SHOULD FORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RIDGING BEHIND IT ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THIS RIDGING WITH ALL THREE ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING ITS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES STAY A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT COULD MOVE DOWN AND
TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS ONLY SHOW SOME
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTH SLOPE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
FIRE WEATHER
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WINDY PASS ALONG THE PARKS
HIGHWAY THIS MORNING, AND THROUGH ISABEL PASS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OFF THE ALASKA RANGE CREATED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DOWN NEAR 25% ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY LATE
YESTERADAY. THIS HELPED TEMPORARILY DRY OUT SOME FINE FUELS. WITH
THE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL SUBSIDE UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING CAN OCCUR.
A STORM HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE BERING SEA TODAY WITH A VERY
MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE WILL SEE UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SOME DRYING OCCURS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AND HUMIDITIES STAY RELATIVELY HIGH. AN ARCTIC FRONT
THEN MOVES DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS UP INTO THE BROOKS RANGE. A BAND
OF RAIN WILL MOVE DOWN OVER THE INTERIOR AS THIS ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AND HUMIDITIES HIGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805-807-810-852-853-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
SYNOPSIS.......MACKAY
KEY MESSAGES...MACKAY
SHORT TERM.....MACKAY
LONG TERM......MAIER
FIRE WEATHER...MAIER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page