696
FXAK69 PAFG 232154
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
154 PM AKDT THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR BRINGING AREAS OF
RAIN AND WIND. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT END AS
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE WILL BE SEEING IMPACTS FROM AN ARCTIC FRONT
AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING RAIN WHICH TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM ANAKTUVUK PASS TO KAKTOVIK. ATIGUN PASS WILL SEE SOME
ACCUMULATION SNOW, BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD ACCUMULATE OFF THE ROADS.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW WILL BE A DRYING DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
LEADING TO A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN THE INTERIOR FROM SUNDAY TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- PERIODS OF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH, STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.
- MOST SPOTS SEE AN ADDITIONAL 0.10" TO 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FROM THE AK RANGE TO CHENA REC AREA, AMOUNTS OF
0.50" TO 1.00" ARE POSSIBLE, HEAVIEST IN THE AK RANGE.
- TOMORROW REMAINS CHILLY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS BUT WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED, AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER TANANA AND YUKON VALLEYS.
- WINDS WEAKEN AND IT GRADUALLY WARMS ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
TRANSIENT RIDGE. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES.
- A FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A DRYING TREND TODAY AS A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OUTSIDE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SW AK SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY BUT RISE INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST WITH MID 60S INLAND TOMORROW, THEN MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND ON SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONT DIVES IN FROM THE NORTH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO THE 40S/50S ALONG THE COAST AND
50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A FRONT WILL DESCEND FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX FROM ANAKTUVUK PASS
NORTH/EAST. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST, GUSTING 30 TO 45
MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND KAKTOVIK.
- AREAS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ~ 3PM IN THE
NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE. THIS SNOW CAN MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT TIMES, AND EVEN SLEET ON THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT ANY PATCHY
ICE MELTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND A FEW INCHES NEAR ATIGUN PASS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, MOST OF IT WILL ACCUMULATE AWAY FROM
THE ROAD.
- OTHERWISE, FRIDAY CONSISTS OF DRYING WEATHER BUT REMAINS CLOUDY
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY COMES WITH SOME MORNING
SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST, BUT A FRONT BRINGS
MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- A VARIETY OF TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MID
30S NEAR UTQIAGVIK TODAY, 40S/50S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE 20S/LOW 30S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TOMORROW INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S (WARMEST WEST). VERY
WARM ON SATURDAY, IN THE 60S/70S, THEN 30S/40S AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH SOME
IMPACTFUL WEATHER. WE'LL START ON THE NORTH SLOPE WHERE A FRONT IS
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. IT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
CHILLY AND BREEZY WEATHER TO THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST, AND THIS
SPREADS TOWARDS THE BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE, SLEET AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BROOKS
RANGE AND THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT
TOWARDS A CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE SIGNAL IN THE BROOKS RANGE WITH
SATURATION UNDERNEATH THE DGZ AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FROM
ABOUT 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
PATCHY ICE. ON THE COAST, SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH LARGER WARM NOSE
AT 800 MB, INCREASING TO ~2C - 4C WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUNDING
IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN FROM
ABOUT 6 PM TO 10 PM WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF SLEET. ALL IN
ALL, IT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE TO EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THIS, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE
TONIGHT RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN
KAKTOVIK AND 35 MPH IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY, BUT IT CAN MAKE TRAVEL A BIT
DIFFICULT IF ANY SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE RESULTS IN PATCHY ICE.
WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ICE, IT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. REGARDLESS, ANY PATCHES OF ICE WILL MELT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH SOME AREAS OF
SUNSHINE, THEN ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEHWERE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, RAIN WILL BE ENDING GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, AROUND 0.10" TO 0.30" IN THE
INTERIOR, HOWEVER SOME SPOTS IN THE AK RANGE AND CHENA REC AREA
WILL APPROACH 0.50" TO 1.00" (HEAVIEST IN THE AK RANGE). WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE SPOT TO MONITOR
IS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND UPPER YUKON VALLEY NEAR EAGLE WHERE
WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 TO 40 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
ALASKA WILL BE A FAIRLY NICE AND COOL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. THIS PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY, BUT A FRONT THEN
DIVES SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
WETTING RAINS PERSIST IN THE INTERIOR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE HIT OR MISS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT, BUT WETTING RAINS ARE
NOT GUARANTEED. THEN ON FRIDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH IN NORTHWAY, TOK AND TOWARDS DELTA.
WHILE THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IT IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. OTHERWISE, THIS WEEKEND WILL DRY OUT WITH A TRANSIENT
RIDGE MOVING THROUGH, THEN ANOTHER FRONT PROVIDES SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF
UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME RIDGING IS POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CONCERN BUT ALL OF THE RAIN RECENTLY
HAS LEAD TO GRADUAL RIVER RISES ON MOST OF THE RIVERS IN NORTHERN
AK. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE GRAVEL BARS BEING COVERED, NOT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT, BROUGHT ON BY AN ARCTIC
TROUGH, WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN BY BRINGING MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARDS THE ARCTIC
SLOPE ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL
GUSTS LOCATED IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKING AHEAD INTO OUR EXTENDED
PERIOD MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD
BRINGING WITH IT RAIN, AND A CHANCE OF HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS
POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES LATER INTO THE EXTENDED REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, WITH DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
OUR STATE OR OVER THE BERING STRAIT. IF THE MODEL SOLUTION ON THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER ALASKA IS CORRECT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND
BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, IF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
BERING STRAIT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>805-807-810-852-853-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BIANCO
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION - DONNER
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