166
FXAK69 PAFG 241315
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
515 AM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER THE YUKON AND
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST TODAY, A FRONT WILL
WORK SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS
FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER, AS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE SUBSIDE
THIS MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEPARTING LOW INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ORGANIZED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH TO THE
ARCTIC COAST AND RAIN FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY, AS DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.50" EXPECTED. HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND DELTA AND THE ALASKA RANGE.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY UNDER INCREASING CLEAR SKIES
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- A FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WILL PASS OVER
THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS, BREEZY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA TODAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG.
- A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
YUKON DELTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER ON
SUNDAY FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA AS AN ARCTIC FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH SLOPE
AND BROOKS RANGE WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING, WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND T-3" FOR NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND A T-1" FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AROUND KAKTOVIK AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE, INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CONTINUING THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LESSENING BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON
SATURDAY IN THE 60S/70S.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF FRONT BUILDING IN, WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- THAT QUICK WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
WORKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. 3-6" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALASKA, EXTENDING INTO THE
YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. A FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST TODAY
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CULMINATION OF WHAT WAS A LOW IN THE BERING
SEA A FEW DAYS AGO, WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA MAINLAND. COLDER TEMPERATURES
FARTHER NORTH HAVE YIELDED A CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
LATER IN THE DAY YESTERDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM RAIN
YESTERDAY TO PREDOMINANT SNOW, WITH WEBCAMS AROUND TOOLIK,
ANAKTUVUK, ATIGUN, AND KAKTOVIK EVIDENT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE REGION. HIGHEST TOTALS AS OF 4 AM APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF
ATIGUN PASS TO TOOLIK AND ICE CUT HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, WHERE AN ELEVATION
DEPENDENT T-3" LOOKS TO BE PANNING OUT. FARTHER NORTHEAST, THE
KAKTOVIK MWOS CAMERA IS SHOWING AROUND A T-1". NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AROUND KAKTOVIK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE, INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
CONTINUING THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LESSENING BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. REMAIN MINDFUL OF WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IN THIS CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH
STRONGER WINDS ONGOING, WITH ANY NEW SNOW EXPECTED TO MELT TODAY.
BACK DOWN ACROSS THE INTERIOR, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE
ALCAN BORDER TODAY, AS DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS BUILD IN
OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HERE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS ACROSS
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
0.10-0.50" EXPECTED. HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DELTA AND
THE ALASKA RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES PEAK ON SATURDAY UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE 60S/70S. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG LOOK
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH SLOPE AND FAR WESTERN ALASKA
TODAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLOPE LATER
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AS A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE YUKON DELTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA, AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
WORKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST ALASKA FIRST, MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, WEST COAST, AND NORTH SLOPE. WHILE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS WILL BE THE GOING TREND FOR MOST, WE
ARE WATCHING FOR YET AGAIN ANOTHER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE ON SUNDAY. OUR LATEST
RAINFALL/SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FORECAST SHOWS AROUND 0.10-0.25"
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH LOCALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
AROUND A T-0.10" FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
AROUND NORTHWAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING INCREASINGLY COLD AND
WET FOR THE BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.75" NOW EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF SNOW, WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT 3-6" OF WET SNOW DEPENDENT ON WHEN WE SEE THAT
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. GUSTY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO ACCOMPANY
THE SNOW, WHICH MAY FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY. STAY TUNED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SPREADING
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORTYMILE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY END. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. IT WILL STAY
UNSEASONABLY COLD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ARCTIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA ON TUESDAY. THIS BECOMES A DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND THAT SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THIS RIDGING WILL OCCUR BASED
ON THE ENSEMBLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT COULD MOVE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT ENERGY WOULD
LIKELY IMPACT THE NORTH SLOPE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
REST OF THE INTERIOR STAYS DRY AND WARMS UP BACK INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
FIRE WEATHER
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK IS
FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO CANADA. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS DID
OCCUR OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS, WILL LINGER OVER THE FORTYMILE, UPPER TANANA, AND ALASKA
RANGE TODAY. THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND INTO SUNDAY. THE FORTYMILE AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WILL DRY OUT ON SATURDAY. THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AND HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD.
AN ARCTIC FRONT THEN MOVES DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS UP INTO THE BROOKS
RANGE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE DOWN OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE
NORTH AS THIS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WILL RECEIVE MORE WETTING RAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND
HUMIDITIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING AND DRYING
STRETCH IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
SYNOPSIS.......MACKAY
KEY MESSAGES...MACKAY
SHORT TERM.....MACKAY
LONG TERM......MAIER
FIRE WEATHER...MAIER
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