266
FXAK69 PAFG 242315
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST OF EASTERN ALASKA WILL HAVE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CHUCKCHI SEA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL START OFF WITH MOSTLY RAIN,
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE TRANSITION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE IN THE BROOKS
RANGE WITH EXPECTED TOTALS BETWEEN 2" AND 4". THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SUMMER MAY NOT BE OVER
JUST YET AS SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
PRESSURE RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY,
AS DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS 0.05-0.15" EXPECTED. HIGHEST TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND NORTHWAY AND THE ALASKA RANGE.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY UNDER INCREASING CLEAR SKIES
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WORKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WILL PASS
OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, BREEZY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA TODAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG.
- A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
YUKON DELTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL TREND COOLER ON
SUNDAY FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA AS AN ARCTIC FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON
SATURDAY IN THE 60S/70S.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE CHUKCHI, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT
WORKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 2-4" OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND A COATING TO 2" ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE SE INTERIOR TOWARD
THE AL-CAN BOARDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THESE AREAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY, MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA WILL SEE A BRIEF SHIFT BACK
TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SLOPE AS HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY SOUTH FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE YK-DELTA
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH
WILL BE DIGGING SE FROM THE CHUKCHI. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THE PREVIOUS DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS MOSTLY RAIN THEN
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW AS THE FRONT REACHES THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE BROOKS RANGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE TRANSITION,
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SLEET AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH SNOW
TOTALS BETWEEN 2" AND 4" EXPECTED. ONE THING TO NOTE WITH THIS IS
RECENT MODELS RUNS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY TRENDING DOWN IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BROAD TROUGHING IS LOOKING TO SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE BERING SEA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SEASONAL NORMAL CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA. A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND SETTLES IN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND MIN
RHS DROPPING INTO THE 30 TO 40% RANGE. OUT WEST, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST COAST FROM SIBERIA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE YK DELTA. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND 0.10" OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIPS DOWN AND PUSHES A
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THIS FRONT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY IN KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE BERING
STRAIT. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WETTING RAINS
EXPECTED. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 0.10" TO
0.25" WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR AND AK RANGE. LITTLE TO NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WARMING
TREND IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDING REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE STATE.
HYDROLOGY
WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME OF THE RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS COULD LEAD TO WATER
OVER GRAVEL BARS, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS ABLE TO PUSH DEPENDING ON
THE PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE BERING. WITH
THIS TROUGH, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW AND GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AGAIN, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MODELS HANDLE
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND SETTING UP
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A CLEARER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WHICH COULD PUT MOST OF
ALASKA BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND, OUR FORECAST IS LEANING MORE TOWARD A GFS
SOLUTION AS IT HAS THE RIDGE REMAINING MORE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE KOTZEBUE SOUND. GUSTS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. WITH THIS, WATER LEVELS COULD RISE TO AS
HIGH AS 2 FT ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE ACROSS THE KOTZEBUE
SOUND.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
SYNOPSIS.......TWOMBLY
KEY MESSAGES...TWOMBLY
SHORT TERM.....TWOMBLY
LONG TERM......TWOMBLY
FIRE WEATHER...SANTIAGO
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