751
FXAK69 PAFG 142346
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 PM AKDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WARMING AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- DRIER WEATHER GENERALLY LASTS UNTIL CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS RETURN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
ON SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM USHERS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH INLAND
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM
AKDT SATURDAY FOR THE NOATAK AND LOWER KOBUK VALLEYS AND
SEWARD PENINSULA FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 DEGREES.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BRINGS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND INLAND AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND, COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL
NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S, APPROACHING 80 NEAR UMIAT. EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS KEEP
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN SATURDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
WARM SUMMERTIME WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PROVE TO BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE
OVERHEAD WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND EVEN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AK, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS AREAS CLOSER TO THE ALASKA
RANGE. ON SUNDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE, AS A LOW
BRINGS WIDESPREAD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR A LITTLE LONGER, THESE WILL WIND
DOWN BY MONDAY AS A FRONT TRAVERSES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE. ALONGSIDE THE RAIN, SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR VARIOUS MOUNTAIN PASSES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COOLER AND MORE RAIN-FILLED PATTERN LOOKS SET TO
REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS NORTHERN AK
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, A 576
DECAMETER RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA, DEFLECTING THE STRONGEST OF SYSTEMS AWAY FROM US, AND
BRINGING MORE CLEARING TO PARTS OF THE STATE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REACH 11-14C ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR, REFLECTING SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS EVEN THE
LOWER 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR, ALONG WITH AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
ALASKA RANGE, THOUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE NORTH
SLOPE STILL LOOK SET TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S. A NEW SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING CHANCES OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR
(SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA), AND FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
ON SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN UNDERGOES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE,
HERALDING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN AK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. ALOFT, THE RIDGE WHICH HAS
BEEN SHIELDING THE INTERIOR FROM THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC STORM
TRACK WILL BE PUSHED E INTO THE YUKON AND THEN INTO NUNAVUT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE INITIAL CULPRIT - A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING UP INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AROUND A STRONGER LOW ON
SATURDAY, WILL BE SWIFTLY REPLACED BY THE STRONGER LOW ITSELF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER LOW WILL FULLY DISLODGE THE
ALREADY WEAKENED RIDGE, AND SEND A STREAM OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR, ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED FRONT WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE THE ALASKA RANGE AND BRING GROWING CHANCES OF RAIN
AND WIND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE
TIME FRAME. AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWER TOTALS FOR
AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE
THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER WITH GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME, WITH HIGHS BROADLY FALLING
BELOW 70 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ON MONDAY, A LOW IN THE
EASTERN BERING WILL HELP SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 50
MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH ISABEL PASS AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AS WELL AS IN THE ALASKA
AND BROOKS RANGES, WITH THE WETTEST SPOTS (LIKELY IN THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR) POSSIBLY SEEING OVER AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED. BY MID/LATE WEEK,
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LESS LIKELY, BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO COASTAL HAZARD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
TWO DISTINCT WEATHER PATTERNS LOOK SET TO IMPACT
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, DRY WEATHER IS PRE-EMINENT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LOWER 80S. AREAS FURTHER
EAST AND FURTHER SOUTH WILL BROADLY BE WARMER THAN AREAS ALONG
THE COAST OR THE NORTH SLOPE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. A
NEW SHORTWAVE MOVING UP INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CREATE AN
ARC OF CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
ON SUNDAY, THE SITUATION BEGINS RAPIDLY CHANGING. A LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR BRINGS WITH IT A SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A FRONT
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW'S EASTERN FLANK BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY
UP THROUGH THE INTERIOR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL SEE WINDS STRENGTHEN CROSS DOWNSLOPED AREAS OF
THE ALASKA RANGE - WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS AND STILL LINGERING DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY FOR
THE EASTERN INTERIOR, AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. ON MONDAY,
RAINFALL WILL OVERRUN THE REST OF THE STATE, INCLUDING THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR, WITH CHANCES REACHING AS FAR NORTH
AS PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN SOME RIVER RISES,
AS 0.5-2 INCHES FALL. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ814-816-
818-823.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ858.
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