489
FXAK69 PAFG 151436
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
636 AM AKDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM CONDITIONS PEAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH VALLEY HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW 70 DEGREES BEGINNING MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM
10 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 AM TUESDAY FOR GAP WINDS GUSTING TO 55
MPH THROUGH ISABEL PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH INLAND HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR THE NOATAK AND LOWER KOBUK VALLEYS AND THE SEWARD
PENINSULA FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
BRINGS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST
COAST AND INLAND AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S, APPROACHING 80 NEAR UMIAT. ONSHORE
EASTERLY WINDS KEEP THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA BEFORE COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TAKES OVER BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL KEEP THE INTERIOR AND
NORTH SLOPE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. ON SUNDAY, A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS
AS A BERING SEA LOW ADVANCES INLAND, DRIVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD
AND PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE 576 DECAMETER RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
DICTATE THE REGION'S WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO DEFLECT SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE
MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD CLEARING. BENEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME,
850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 11-14C WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE LOWER 80S. THE PEAK WARMTH WILL CONCENTRATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR, AS WELL AS AREAS
DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE, THOUGH HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL
EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 75 TO 80 DEGREES
HAS PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
THE NOATAK AND LOWER KOBUK VALLEYS, AS WELL AS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING AROUND THE OUTER MARGIN OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ACROSS AN ARC STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR.
A PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC TRANSITION UNFOLDS ON SUNDAY, MARKING A
SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.
ALOFT, THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN WILL BE NUDGED
EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES OVER. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STRONGER LOW TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BE QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY THE LOW ITSELF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS PRIMARY LOW WILL COMPLETELY DISLODGE THE REMNANT
RIDGE, DIRECTING A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ALONGSIDE AN ORGANIZED COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STRENGTHENING WINDS
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE NORTH OF TRIMS CAMP FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 12
AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BROAD TROUGHING AND COOL, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
STAGNANT BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, BROADLY DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. ALOFT, MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRIMARY
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MID TO
LATE WEEK CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE ON MONDAY, WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH ISABEL PASS BEFORE
EASING ON TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIRECT A PLUME
OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO WESTERN ALASKA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE ALASKA AND BROOKS
RANGES. THE WETTEST LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE, COULD SEE LOCALIZED RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ON MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD,
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AS THE PRINCIPAL LOW MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DIMINISHES MID TO LATE
WEEK, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO COASTAL HAZARD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND, FAIRLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW HAS MOVED
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
WHICH IS WORKING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY
GENERALLY RANGED FROM T-0.10" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
0.50" AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE, ANOTHER PRE-
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE YK DELTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FUELING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TOWARDS THE NULATO HILLS. NATURALLY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
MIN RHS WILL BE EXPECTED WHERE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPS.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S, ESPECIALLY IN THE YUKON FLATS, UPPER TANANA VALLEY, AND ARCTIC
PLAINS. FOR COASTAL REGIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT
MORE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AS FOR MIN RHS, THEY SHOULD
GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 30-40% WITH ISOLATED AREAS SEEING BELOW 30%
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING TOWARDS SUNDAY, A MORE DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTS
TO TAKE SHAPE AS A LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE STATE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS WITH PLENTY OF RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO USHER IN MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER.
HYDROLOGY
EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS, AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ814-816-
818-823.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ849.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ858.
KEY MESSAGES...SATCHER
SYNOPSIS...SATCHER
SHORT TERM...SATCHER
LONG TERM...SATCHER
FIRE WEATHER...SANTIAGO
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