381
FXAK69 PAFG 152343
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 PM AKDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM CONDITIONS PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, WITH
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER
80S. TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW 70 DEGREES BEGINNING MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM
10 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 AM TUESDAY FOR GAP WINDS GUSTING TO 55
MPH THROUGH ISABEL PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INLAND
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM
AKDT SATURDAY FOR THE NOATAK AND LOWER KOBUK VALLEYS AND THE
SEWARD PENINSULA FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
YUKON DELTA AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
BRINGS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST
COAST AND INLAND AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S, APPROACHING 80 NEAR UMIAT. ONSHORE
EASTERLY WINDS KEEP THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COOLER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY, IT WILL STAY ON THE WARMER & DRIER SIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE STATE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL NOT BREAK DOWN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND / THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN APPRECIABLY STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING & SW AK WILL PUSH THE RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA WHILE MOVING FURTHER INTO THE
STATE. THIS PROCESS PUSHING-OUT PROCESS WILL START ON SUNDAY.
ACCELERATED GAP WINDS THROUGH AK RANGE PASSES LIKE ISABEL PASS &
WINDY PASS ARE LIKELY AS THE LOW CENTER PUSHES NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD, POSITIONING IT NORTH OF THAT SECTION OF THE
ALASKA RANGE FOR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING FREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT FOR ISABEL PASS FOR THAT
TIMEFRAME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
INTO TONIGHT & FOLLOW THE TROF NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BROOKS RANGE
& TANANA FLATS THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONFINED TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY & 40 MILE COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS OUR AOR FROM THE BEGINNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER THIS TROFING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
NW AREAS NEAR KOTZEBUE SOUND(AROUND THE NOATAK AND LOWER KOBUK
VALLEYS) AS 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REMAIN AROUND + 5 TO 8
DEG C THROUGH THIS EVENING. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
THROUGH THE STATE FROM SSW TO NNE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PUSHING
THE RIDGE OUT OF THE AREA & BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS, RAIN, &
WIND TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR AOR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
IN OUR WESTERN AREAS AS THE LOW & ITS ASSOCIATED TROF APPROACH &
PUSH INLAND ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ENHANCED 500MB VORTICITY,
850MB WAA, 700MB MOISTURE ADVECTION, ENHANCED MODEL CAPE, & LOW
LI WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR
INTO TONIGHT & FOLLOW THE TROF NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BROOKS
RANGE & TANANA FLATS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
ATTRIBUTES FOLLOW THESE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY & 40 MILE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THE FAIRBANKS /
TANANA VALLEY REGION WILL GET LESS RAINFALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES IN AS THEY WILL BE RAIN SHADOWED.
AS THE LOW PUSHES IN, THE ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH & LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE
ENHANCED GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH OUR ALASKA RANGE PASSES LIKE
ISABEL PASS & WINDY PASS. GENERALLY, FREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 10AM SUNDAY
TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ISABEL PASS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. OF NOTE, THE WIND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY AROUND THE TATLANIKA FIRE ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH MAY CAUSE IT TO FLARE-
UP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME, WITH GENERAL
TROUGHING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND HIGHS BROADLY
FALLING BELOW 70 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE, INCLUDING GAP WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES, SHOULD
TAPER OFF AS A BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES EAST, ENDING ANY
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED WARMING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 60S EVEN IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, WITH UPPER 60S STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
LEAD TO BROADLY SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OR MOST OF THE AREA
MOVING INTO MIDWEEK, WITH HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE. BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK, THERE IS GREATER MODEL UNCERTAINTY, WITH SOME
MODELS SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO MOVE OFF OF OR
FROM JUST SOUTH OF RUSSIA AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO WESTERN ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO COASTAL HAZARD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MANY AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FOR
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS 35%, WITH THE DRIEST AREA
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOMORROW TO THE NORTHERN WEST COAST, NORTH SLOPE,
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR.
BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A PATTERN SHIFT AS A LOW
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS WITH WETTING RAINS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE THE INTERIOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE DRIER DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR INTO THE 60S. RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE A WIDESPREAD 0.50" FOR THE WEST
COAST, WESTERN INTERIOR, AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 1.50" IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. THOUGH THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER, SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.10-0.25". GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISABEL PASS
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS, AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ814-816-818-
823.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ849.
MARINE...NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS...CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERS
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
FIRE WEATHER...LEWIS
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