224
FXAK69 PAFG 161323
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
523 AM AKDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE 70 IN THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 60 STARTING MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.
-CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE YUKON
FLATS AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH TOTALS UP TO
0.25 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 0.5 INCHES OVER
TERRAIN WEST OF FAIRBANKS BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
TOTALS IN FAIRBANKS, THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY, AND THE YUKON FLATS
WILL BE BELOW 0.1 INCHES.
-GUSTY WINDS PICK UP IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE FROM 10 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 AM TUESDAY FOR GAP WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN ISABEL PASS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE WEAKER IN
WINDY PASS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH EXPECTED.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WILL BE 1-2 INCHES IN THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND 0.5 INCHES IN THE
YK DELTA LOWLANDS AND IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
-NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT INCREASE ON
MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
-TEMPERATURES DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S-MID 60S ON THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 70S INLAND ON SUNDAY TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-SUNDAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER UPPER 70S IN GAPS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE
ARCTIC PLAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGHOUT TO START THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON THE ARCTIC COAST, AND
HIGHS IN THE MID- TO-UPPER 50S INLAND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS FROM 1 PM AKDT THROUGH 10 PM AKDT
ON SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES UP TO 80.
-THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BROOKS RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. EXPECT
TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND UP
TO 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN ARCTIC PLAINS AND COAST.
SYNOPSIS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY COULD BE THE FINAL
VESTIGE OF SUMMER, AS A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND.
THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AS A FRONT BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR IT WILL SHIFT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST ARCTIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL INTO
THE 50S/60S ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE, THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERIOR TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
KEEPING US COOLER AND WETTER INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS WE CONTINUE
TO LOSE DAYLIGHT, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH, THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY MARK OUR GRADUAL TRANSITION INTO AUTUMN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST WEEK
HAS SHIFTED EAST. A WEAK LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE YK DELTA,
WITH A STRONGER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE
TWO LOWS WILL PHASE WITH EACH OTHER SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE DEEPER LOW STARTS TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAIRBANKS CWA WILL BE IN THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER AREAS OF TERRAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE YK DELTA LOWLANDS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES AND 1 INCH. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND YUKON FLATS RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SPIN OFF FROM THE LOWS IN
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY AS SOUTHERLY
CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE SETS UP ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE RANGE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE PASSES SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW (OVER BRISTOL BAY)
FAVORS A TIGHTER GRADIENT THROUGH ISABEL PASS, THOUGH STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN WINDY PASS AS WELL. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ISABEL PASS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. WINDY PASS WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAY BRING SMOKE FROM
THE TATLANIKA FIRE INTO FAIRBANKS ON SUNDAY, BUT CONCENTRATIONS
APPEAR LOW AND ELEVATED ACCORDING TO HRRR SMOKE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD 70+ DEGREE HIGHS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
IN THE INTERIOR AS RIDGING IS ABLE TO CLING ON IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR.
THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ON MONDAY, MOVING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST, SO DO THE AREAS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION. THE NULATO
HILLS AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS MAY SEE PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON MONDAY NOW
THAT FLOW IS LESS SOUTHERLY, THOUGH TOTALS IN THE REGION STAY BELOW
0.25 INCHES. THE FOOTPRINT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEING LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A
LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WHEN INTERACTING WITH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO 35 MPH, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, IN THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTED
BY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHEASTERN ARCTIC PLAINS AND
COAST SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WITH BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES EXPECTED IN THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO KEEP NORTHERN
ALASKA COOLER AND WETTER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN DEPTH IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIDWEEK WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WHAT WE SAW IN THE EARLIER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, AS TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH THIS TROUGHING PATTERN WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. VERY WEAK RIDGING COULD BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ISN'T A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGING DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. IF THIS RIDGING
DEVELOPS WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
ALCAN BORDER AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND A LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN SIBERIA AND INTO THE BERING SEA. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS THEY HAVE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND INEVITABLE TRACK, BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT ABOVE THE 990 MB MARK AND WILL KEEP IT SOUTH
OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK BEING SOUTH OF
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, ANY COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH OF WINDS WILL BE MINIMIZED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO COASTAL HAZARD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS WE COULD EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY. AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM HUSLIA TO NOATAK.
AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE MAINLAND, SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SET UP.
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE GAP WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE TANANA
VALLEY WARMER AND DRIER. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
DAY FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT WETTING RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN
THE VALLEYS A T-0.09" OF RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY.
ON THE NORTH SLOPE IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S ALONG THE COAST AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS. WE HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY
OUT FOR THE CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAINS. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
MINIMUM RHS TO BE A CONCERN AS THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 40%.
MOVING INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW IS DIRECTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL INTO THE 50S/60S ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA WITH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY BEING THE WARMEST. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL STORY FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS KEEP IT COOLER.
HYDROLOGY
EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO RISE ON RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA, WESTERN INTERIOR, AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AS 0.5 TO 2.0
INCHES OF RAIN FALLS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS, AND NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR AKZ806-808.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AKDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AKZ849.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ806-
807-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
MONDAY FOR PKZ854.
KEY MESSAGES...SCHLEZINGER
SYNOPSIS...DENNIS
SHORT TERM...SCHLEZINGER
LONG TERM...DENNIS
FIRE WEATHER...DENNIS
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