024
FXAK69 PAFG 162240
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 PM AKDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 60S STARTING MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR.
-WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH
TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO
0.5 INCHES OVER TERRAIN WEST OF FAIRBANKS BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. TOTALS IN FAIRBANKS, THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY, AND THE YUKON FLATS WILL BE BELOW 0.1 INCHES.
-GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM 10 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 AM
TUESDAY FOR GAP WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN ISABEL PASS. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE WEAKER IN WINDY PASS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
EXPECTED.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WILL BE 1-2 INCHES IN THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND 0.5 INCHES IN THE
YK DELTA LOWLANDS AND IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
-NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT INCREASE ON
MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
-TEMPERATURES DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGHOUT TO START THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON THE ARCTIC COAST, AND HIGHS IN THE MID- TO-
UPPER 50S INLAND.
-AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. EXPECT TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND UP TO 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
ARCTIC PLAINS AND COAST.
SYNOPSIS
THE WARM WEATHER IS WINDING DOWN, AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER IS ON THE DOORSTEP. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA BRING WITH THEM A BROAD
SWATH OF ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL INITIALLY BE FOR
THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONGSIDE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WITH PARTS OF
THE BROOKS RANGE. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WILL ALSO SEE
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS A FRONT STALLS OVER IT EARLY IN THE
WEEK. CHANCES OF RAIN THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS SYSTEMS ROLE THROUGH, ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY - ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE WARMER WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK LOOKS SET TO COME TO AN END,
WITH RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ALOFT, THE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN ANCHORED ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS
BEING EJECTED EAST. IN ITS PLACE, A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALREADY, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WHICH AS
OF THE TIME OF WRITING HAS MOVED JUST OFFSHORE OF HOOPER BAY,
BRINGING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS
HAVE LIKEWISE RESULTED IN STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF MOUNTAIN
PASSES ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE (WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY).
THE PRIMARY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A STRONGER SURGE OF RAIN. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE, SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY MONDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE, BRINGING WITH IT ELEVATED RAINFALL TOTALS
WHICH COULD REACH UPWARDS OF OVER AN INCH. WHILE NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EFI TABLES HAVE PICKED UP ON
THIS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIP PRODUCING EVENT FOR THIS
PARTICULAR PORTION OF ALASKA.
BY TUESDAY, THE MAIN WILL HAVE WEAKENED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH,
WITH ITS AXIS ANCHORED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE STATE. LINGERING
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WILL BE REINFORCED BY
WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LONGER PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER BETWEEN
THE ROUNDS OF RAIN - PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND
FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, WHERE DOWNSLOPING
CREATES A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY ATTEMPT
TO BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THE TWO HALVES
OF THE TROUGH, BUT WILL QUICKLY FALTER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA MIDWEEK,
BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THIS WEAK RIDGING, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. BY FRIDAY MORNING, A LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
FROM THE BERING SEA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE
ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK, BUT
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS IT ABOVE 990 MB AND WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK BEING SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, ANY COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF WINDS
WILL BE MINIMIZED. EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR RECEIVING A BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO COASTAL CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE GENERALLY WET/MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, GENERALLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE
TODAY. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO THE LOW 80S. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 50 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH
ISABEL PASS AND EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND
INTO THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA. THIS SOUTH FLOW IS HELPING TO DRY OUT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE
MID-TO-LOW 40S IN SPOTS AND COULD FURTHER FALL INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GAP WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH
WINDY PASS BY THIS EVENING; GENERAL DOWNSLOPING IN THE AREA WILL
HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND RHS FROM NEAR GOLD
KING TO NEAR ANDERSON, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AND MIN RH VALUES
IN THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN
THE YUKON FLATS, ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL LIMIT THE RHS FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MANY/MOST AREAS.
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A LEADING FRONT AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL BRING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MINTO FLATS WESTWARD.
WHILE THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY COULD REMAIN A BIT DRIER WITH
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW ONGOING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT,
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS. HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE
WILL FALL BELOW 70 AT THIS POINT, WITH MIN RH VALUES BROADLY ABOVE
50 PERCENT. PORTIONS OF THE YUKON FLATS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR FROM NEAR TOK TO THE ALCAN BORDER COULD BE EXCEPTIONS, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING RIGHT AROUND 70 WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
MIN RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 30S.
BY TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ENDING AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR,
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS FALL BELOW 70, WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 60S OR LOWER. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE 40 EVEN IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE
COUNTRY, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRIEST. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK SUPPORTING HIGHS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
VALLEYS RISING BACK INTO THE MID OR UPPER 60S FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
GENERALLY COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THAN OBSERVED IN RECENT DAYS IS FAVORED THROUGH THEN.
HYDROLOGY
SOME MINOR RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM AREA
AND THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW MOVES
INLAND, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ806-808.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ837.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ849.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ806-
807-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
MONDAY FOR PKZ854.
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