757
FXAK69 PAFG 182249
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 PM AKDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60'S AS THE REGION BRIEFLY DRIES
OUT.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIGHT WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN
TO THE STRAIT THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TOTAL
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF .25" TO .50" THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE BERING
SEA.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH SLOPE
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND
BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF .25" TO .50 "
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH .10"
TO AS MUCH AS .25" EXPECTED ACROSS CLOSER TO THE ARCTIC
COASTLINE.
- STEADIER RAINFALL WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SPREADING EASTWARDS
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE MAINLY
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL SET IN THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM
ENTERS THE BERING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE WEST WHILE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE IS NOW
MAKING A QUICK EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AS OF EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO INTERIOR ALASKA HAS
CONTINUED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THAT ACTIVITY SETTLES DOWN. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
QUICKLY RACING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SHOULD BRING YET AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE MIX IS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE MODELS ALL HINT AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS A LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
SENDS SHORTWAVE ENERGY UP THEIR WAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT
NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY SHORT TERM HYDRO CONCERNS.
TEMPS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS TO
THE CURRENT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TANANA
WHERE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED. IN ADDITION THIS AREA COULD
WELL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE WEEK
AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK SOME MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA, MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSETTLED REGIME. A WEAK LOW MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE BERING FROM SIBERIA ON FRIDAY WILL REINFORCE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN ALASKA, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH BRINGING PERIODIC SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, THE BROOKS RANGE, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
INTERIOR. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE INTERMITTENT AND
ISOLATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TROUGH, BRINGING A
BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINS LIMITED, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
TOTALS UP TO AN INCH. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SIGNAL FAVORS CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RATHER THAN A RETURN INTO A WARMER,
DRIER PATTERN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO COASTAL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, MUCH OF THE STATE HAS SEEN QUIET FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. THAT SAID, MAJORITY OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE UPPER TANANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY W TO E ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP BRING A BRIEF COOLING TREND TO THE NORTH SLOPE
ON WEDNESDAY. OVER THE INTERIOR, THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OVERCAST CLOUDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OVER THE YUKON THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RIDGING TO BUILD UP OVER EASTERN ALASKA.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP KEEP MINIMUM RHS DRY
ACROSS THE UPPER-TANANA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE S/SW FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR, FROM THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE,
WILL PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FORTYMILE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
SWITCH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF
SIBERIA AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WITH UP TO 0.5" POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AROUND
THE NORTON SOUND.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY; THE INTERIOR WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST
COAST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
ELSEWHERE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDING MINIMUM RHS, THE
DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE UPPER TANANA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA. MINIMUM
VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
HYDROLOGY
DESPITE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE, RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE NOT SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS. WHILE SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS COULD STILL REACH BANKFULL WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ806-
807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ808-
855-856.
KEY MESSAGES...LANEY
SYNOPSIS...LANEY
SHORT TERM...LANEY
LONG TERM...CRUZ
FIRE WEATHER...TWOMBLY
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