688
FXAK69 PAFG 192229
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THURSDAY & FRIDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60'S AND LOW 70'S.
- THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DISTURBANCES TRACK
NORTH FROM A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF. CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL BE BEST IN THE FORTYMILE REGION.
- BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL
LIKELY BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STORM FROM THE BERING
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA, DRAWING MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE REGION. THIS RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WEST AND COULD LAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE BERING WILL REACH THE YUKON
DELTA BY FRIDAY HELPING TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR.
- OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5 INCHES TO AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER
TOTALS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MIDDLE
KOYUKUK WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS WEEK.
- STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SEAS INCREASING TO BETWEEN
4 AND 5 FEET.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40'S AND 50'S.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOWFALL (<1 INCH) OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH BRINGS INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE.
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK
FROM SHOWERY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPS ALSO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. ELSEWHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO WESTERN ALASKA LATE THURSDAY AND CARRY
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
BROOKS RANGE AS WELL. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BRIEFLY CLIMB THE
NEXT FEW DAY ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE DESPITE A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. BUT THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE EARLY WEEKEND
WILL BRING STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND EVEN SOME EARLY SEASON
SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR AS A WEAK RIDGE HAS DRIFTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, TEMPS WILL WARM BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE A
COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS DOMINATE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS
BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARDS INTO SIBERIA. AN UPPER LOW
NEAR THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARDS,
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD, A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF
EASTERN SIBERIA INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY FRIDAY. INITIALLY
THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WITH A
BAND OF STEADY PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARDS INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE YK DELTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS CYCLONE WITH
CURRENT PROGS SHOWING THE LOW AT AROUND 1000 MB AND THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AT AROUND 1016
MB. WHILE THIS IS STILL A RESPECTABLE GRADIENT, WE HAVE TAPERED
DOWN THE EXPECTED NORTH WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
AND INTO THE NORTHERN BERING FOR FRIDAY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE 30
TO 40 MPH GUSTS WILL BE THE NORM WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS
CORRESPONDING.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE TOTAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CERTAINLY ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS FOR THE REGION. CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES WITH REGARDS TO UPCOMING RAINFALL
IN THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS LIES
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS, WE
HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL GFS/EC BLEND WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
HIGHER QPF VALUES FROM OUR LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. CURRENT
THINKING FOR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY IS .25" TO .50" CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH INLAND AREAS
TOTALING BETWEEN .50" AND .75". HOWEVER WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST
FETCH AND ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING, THE AREA SURROUNDING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MIDDLE KOYUKUK COULD BE IN THE
PRECIPITATION BULLS-EYE WITH 1.00" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OR
MORE.
ELSEWHERE AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE STATE,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LESS IMPACTFUL. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
SATURDAY WITH ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. AT THE SAME TIME SHOWERS
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN INTERIOR
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDER MAY ALSO POP UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COULD SEND ENERGY AND MOISTURE THAT WAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WITH
A STRONG ARCTIC LOW UP NEAR THE NORTH POLE AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE BERING. UNLIKE MAJORITY OF THE RIDGES SEEN SO FAR THIS
SEASON, MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS TO STICK AROUND FOR A PROLONGED
AMOUNT OF TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF SIBERIA. THIS WILL
BE THE FORCING MECHANISM THAT MAY SHIFT THE RIDGING OVER EASTERN
ALASKA, EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A BROAD AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AGGRESSIVE RIDGE BREAKDOWN SEEN
IN THE MODELS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS TO SEE
WHEN THE WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE STATE.
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE LALA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN BUILDING UP
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF SIBERIA AROUND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW THE REMNANTS OF LALA
IMPACT THE STATE.
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SHOWS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION BY HAVING
THE SIBERIA LOW MOVE EAST MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF LALA AND DEVELOP
INTO A DEFINED SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE BERING. ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE BENIGN SOLUTION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF SIBERIA QUICKER, WHICH WON'T
ALLOW FOR THE PHASING, AND BLOCK THE REMNANTS FROM MOVING FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. WHILE BOTH OF THESE WILL STILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, THE INTENSITY AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DIFFER GREATLY. WITH THIS IN MIND, THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODELS RUNS TO SEE
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A VERY WEAK BERING SEA STORM WILL BRING HIGHER WATERS TO THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING DURING HIGH TIDE. THIS
STORM COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER ABOVE THE
MEAN HIGH WATER MARK. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MINOR BEACH
EROSION, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND COOLER CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED
ELIMINATE MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
ALASKA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. HOWEVER, DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THIS TREND LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE.
SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR AS A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY.
THIS COULD WELL INITIATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL BE
BEST POSITIONED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70'S ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY. THIS COULD CORRESPOND WITH MIN RH VALUES AGAIN DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30'S AND LOWER 40'S. WHILE THESE VALUES DO NOT
REPRESENT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THE PRESENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY
FUELS AND INCREASED DIURNAL WIND SPEEDS STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW IN THE GULF HEADS
INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON, WHICH IS A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WRAP-
AROUND FLOW TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. AS SUCH AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
DESPITE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS, WATER LEVELS REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE. THERE HAVE LIKELY BEEN SOME RESPONSES ALONG SMALLER
CREAKS AND STREAMS, BUT NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. LOOKING
AHEAD, THIS AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING
IS AN ADDITIONAL .50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN COULD FALL. WHILE SOME
RESPONSE IS EXPECTED, FLOODING ALONG THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...LANEY
SYNOPSIS...LANEY
SHORT TERM...LANEY
LONG TERM...TWOMBLY
FIRE WEATHER...LANEY
HYDROLOGY...LANEY
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