035
FXAK69 PAFG 201114
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 AM AKDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. AS TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE REGION,
HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
-A LOW ENTERING THE BERING AND A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING 0.25-
0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE INTERIOR FROM FAIRBANKS WEST.
ANOTHER LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST YUKON WILL LIKELY BRING WETTING
RAINS TO THE UPPER TANANA FROM NORTHWAY SOUTH. THE UPPER TANANA
BETWEEN DOT LAKE AND TOK HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH
AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ENTIRE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM
FORTYMILE COUNTRY NORTH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-MOST OF THE REGION GETS A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN THURSDAY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR.
-A WEAK LOW ARRIVES IN THE BERING ON FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY
WINDS, LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES (NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED), ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
-TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60 DEGREES WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ARCTIC PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA.
-TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WHICH WILL BE SATURDAY WEST OF UMIAT AND
SUNDAY FROM UMIAT EAST.
-A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SLOPE ALONG WITH THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRACES-1 INCH OF NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW,
WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY WARM AND DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
THURSDAY BEFORE THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY NORTH OF NORTHWAY, JOINS THE REST OF THE CWA IN BEING COOLER
AND SHOWERY BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. A BERING SEA LOW BRINGS STRONGER
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES (NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED) TO
SOME PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES DROP ON THE NORTH SLOPE AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIPS
OVER THE REGION. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COULD BRING A
NON-ACCUMULATING TRACE-1 INCH OF SNOW TO THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE, ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW IS SET TO ENTER THE BERING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH ONE MORE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH.
.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE REGION, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED AND POTENTIALLY WETTING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TANANA VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTORS
WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE, AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WILL MIX MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE POTENTIAL ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH SOME
EXTRA LIFTING FROM THE TOPOGRAPHY. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
NORTH/CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DIGS INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA. WETTING RAINS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAINS AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR, WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS UP TO 0.25 INCHES.
A WEAK (~995 HPA) LOW ENTERS THE BERING FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BERING SEA WITH SOME MINOR
HIGHER TIDES ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST. NO COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES AND ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 1.25
INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LOW MOVES SOUTH OF SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY MORNING, PUSHING THE RIDGE
EAST INTO CANADA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR/BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC PLAINS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST YUKON. THERE ARE FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S THAT COULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. TROUGHING OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA IS HELPING THE LOW PUSH THE TROUGH EAST FASTER,
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ABLE TO
ENTER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE TRACKING THE
LOW IN THE BERING MORE INTO THE GULF, DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
IT WILL PHASE WITH THE LOW AND KEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LONGER. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING THE LOW MORE INTO THE YUKON, AND WITHOUT A
FRONT TO EXTEND THE REGION OF LIFT AROUND THE LOW. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN COULD BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY FROM NORTHWAY SOUTH.
AN ARCTIC TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, SWINGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA WEST OF FAIRBANKS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 1 INCH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHCENTRAL INTERIOR AS
THE FRONT STALLS AND IS STRETCHED APART, BUT TEMPERATURES(UPPER
50S/LOW 60S) ARE PRETTY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE 850
TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -4 AND -7 C. A MAJORITY OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND
BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE TRACES-1 INCH OF SNOW SATURDAY/SUNDAY, THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BROOKS COULD GET UP TO 2-4
INCHES. SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING UP THERE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY MARGINAL AT THE SURFACE, SNOW WILL
ONLY BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE AT NIGHT, IF AT ALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA MIDWEEK,
BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THIS WEAK RIDGING, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. BY FRIDAY MORNING, A LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
FROM THE BERING SEA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE
ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK, BUT
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS IT ABOVE 990 MB AND WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK BEING SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, ANY COASTAL IMPACTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF WINDS
WILL BE MINIMIZED. EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR RECEIVING A BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE BERING SEA
STORM THAT MOVED ONSHORE ON FRIDAY BEGINNING TO QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING AN ARCTIC TROUGH SWINGING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND COAST, BUT
IN THE BROOKS RANGE WE COULD SEE IT BECOME EITHER A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR JUST SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2500 TO 3500
IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ON
ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, A LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT
IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH
IT BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 990 MBS. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, WE COULD SEE A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE ARE EXPECTING DUE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING TOWARDS THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN
AROUND THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS
MOISTURE PHASING WITH THIS LOW. WITH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREEING WE ARE SEEING LARGE MODEL SPREADS ON THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES OF THE NBM THERE
IS A SPREAD OF 0.5" TO 1.5" OF RAINFALL. AS THIS LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM NORTON SOUND TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN, THIS RAIN WILL
MOVE EASTWARDS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
MID TO LATE WEEK WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW HURRICANE LALA WILL
INTERACT WITH OUR PATTERN IS THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE STEERS IT
TOWARDS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE LOW CENTER
OUT OF THE BERING SEA, AND LETTING IT MEANDER IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. THE MOISTURE CONTENTS HOWEVER
COULD POTENTIALLY GET PHASED TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL
BE ROTATING INTO THE BERING SEA OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THESE TWO FEATURES WE COULD SEE ANOTHER LOW IN
THE BERING TAPPING INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST, AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT, BUT OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A VERY WEAK BERING SEA STORM WILL BRING HIGHER WATERS TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON SOUND FRIDAY MORNING DURING HIGH
TIDE. THIS STORM COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER
ABOVE THE MEAN HIGH WATER MARK. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MINOR
BEACH EROSION, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
FAR EASTERN INTERIOR PARTICULARLY THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY, AS
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL REMAIN COOLER AND WETTER. FROM
FAIRBANKS WEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS TODAY REMAIN
IN THE KOYUKUK AND KOBUK VALLEYS WHILE THE TANANA AND YUKON
VALLEYS WOULD MOST LIKELY SEE T-0.09". TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 50S/60S
TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY COOL TOMORROW AS TROUGHING WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE A RETURN.
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH THE ADDITION OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
VALLEYS WILL BE AROUND 70 AND MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 40%. WE
WILL STILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES AND RHS MODERATED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME MARGINAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM.
THESE CLEARER SKIES AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE WHAT
WILL HELP TO ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY FORM TODAY.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED, BUT IF THEY DO FOR WE COULD
SEE 0.05" - 0.15" OF RAINFALL. AREAS BETWEEN DELTA JUNCTION AND
NORTHWAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A RAIN SHOWER.
FRIDAY WILL MARK THE GENERAL COOLING TREND ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY TO THE BROOKS RANGE. YESTERDAY MODELS WERE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT SOLUTION, AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
BE FROM NORTHWAY TO THE ALCAN WITH UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN BEING
POSSIBLE. DOT LAKE TO TOK COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OF T-0.09",
BUT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALASKA RANGE IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS.
HYDROLOGY
DESPITE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE, RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE NOT SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS. WHILE SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS COULD STILL REACH BANKFULL WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY,
NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5" TO 1.0"
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE KOYUKUK
AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. THIS RAINFALL COULD KEEP THE WATER
LEVELS ELEVATED IN THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...SCHLEZINGER
SYNOPSIS...SCHLEZINGER
SHORT TERM...SCHLEZINGER
LONG TERM...DENNIS
FIRE WEATHER...DENNIS
HYDROLOGY...DENNIS
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