499
FXAK69 PAFG 202222
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY COOL
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BOTTOM OUT SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
-A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING 0.25- 0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE INTERIOR FROM FAIRBANKS WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST YUKON INCREASES CHANCES OF
WETTING RAINS SLIGHTLY IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
-THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH
AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE EASTERN INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST FRIDAY, AND
BRINGS WITH IT GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES (NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED), AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
-RAIN TOTALS OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
-NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH
SATURDAY MORNING.
-TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
ARCTIC PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA.
-TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT PASSES OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WHICH WILL BE SATURDAY WEST OF UMIAT AND
SUNDAY FROM UMIAT EAST.
-A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRACES OF SNOW, WITH 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
SYNOPSIS
BROAD, BUT WEAK, LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS CONDITIONS
COOLER AND SHOWERY INTO NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED
RAIN AND WIND TO THE WEST COAST AND CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
SLOPE. THE EASTERN INTERIOR SLOWLY COOLS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, BUT LOW IN MANY OF THE FINER DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THURSDAY, THE PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
NORTHWEST OF ALASKA AND A PAIR OF LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC LOW
OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH ARE MANY
SMALLER FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 2 LARGEST OF THESE FEATURES
ARE A FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES
FROM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY EAST AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS THE
YUKON BY SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES LIES EXPECTED WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LARGER PATTERN IS EASY TO
DISCERN AS COOLER AND SHOWERY, BUT MANY OF THE MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS HAVE BECOME HAVE BECOME HARDER TO FORECAST DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MANY SMALLER FEATURES. THESE SMALLER FEATURES BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNPREDICTABLE AS THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND
MAKES MANY FORECASTING DETAILS SUCH AS THE EXACT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION OR THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE RAIN TOTALS MUCH HARDER
TO NAIL DOWN.
THE FRONT THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WILL BE
MORE PREDICTABLE IN TERMS OF TIMING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE RAIN TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS INCLUDE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
AND LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
SNOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY STICKING ALONG THE COAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IS IN THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE
CONSERVATIVE RANGES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THERE IS A MUCH WIDER SPREAD OF POSSIBLE
VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE 1 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS AT 2 INCHES OR LESS. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SMALL,
BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT PUSHES PRECIPITATION INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS PRESSURE DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWS
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.
THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE THE LEAST AFFECTED BY THIS
FRONT REMAINING RELATIVELY WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, SUNDAY, THE
PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE FRONT THAT
PASSED OVER THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE REACHED
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND FORMED INTO A MORE DISTINCT LOW. BETWEEN
SYSTEMS IN THE BERING THE PACIFIC HIGH PUSHES HIGHER PRESSURE
NORTH CREATING SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. A BRIEF
BREAK IN RAINY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM STARTS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST AS ANOTHER LOW
THAT ROTATES AROUND THE LARGER ARCTIC LOW. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND EXACT POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW
TO MODERATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF COOLER,
WETTER, CONDITIONS TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RANGE OF POTENTIAL VALUES FOR HOW WET IT
WILL GET AND HOW FAR INTO THE INTERIOR THE RAIN WILL GET. THERE
IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE
WEST COAST AND ITS WATERS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES THROUGHOUT THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE VALUES IS
TOO WIDE TO BE ABLE TO NARROW IN ON OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A VERY WEAK BERING SEA STORM WILL BRING HIGHER WATERS TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON SOUND FRIDAY MORNING DURING HIGH
TIDE. THIS STORM COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER
ABOVE THE MEAN HIGH WATER MARK. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MINOR
BEACH EROSION, BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TANANA. HOWEVER, THIS AREA HAS SEEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. THIS WAS FROM A WEAK FRONT MOVING NE AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED NW-
SW ORIENTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CHUKCHI TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE BASE OF THIS AXIS, A WELL DEFINED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE OUT OF SIBERIA
ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF. THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE GULF LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SE FLOW TO SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 60
AND 70 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRIEST VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE UPPER TANANA, ALTHOUGH NOT AS DRY WITH
EXPECTED VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT.
ON SATURDAY, THE LOW FROM SIBERIA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS
THE YK DELTA AND REPLACE THE PREVIOUS LOW THAT WAS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A SERIES
OF FRONTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHICH COULD PROVIDE A CHANCE WETTING
RAIN FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DALTON AND THE PARKS HWY. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE FARTHER SE.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HELP MODERATE SOME OF THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
DESPITE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE, RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE NOT SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS. WHILE SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS COULD STILL REACH BANKFULL WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH , NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AN ADDITIONAL
0.5" TO 1.0" OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. THIS RAINFALL COULD KEEP
THE WATER LEVELS ELEVATED IN THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ806-
807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ817-
854.
KEY MESSAGES...STOKES
SYNOPSIS...STOKES
SHORT TERM...STOKES
LONG TERM...STOKES
FIRE WEATHER...TWOMBLY
HYDROLOGY...DENNIS
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