215
FXAK69 PAFG 211307
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
507 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND BOTTOM OUT SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING AS HIGH AS 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM BETTLES TO MINCHUMINA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST YUKON INCREASES CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS SLIGHTLY IN
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
- CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY, LOCALIZED TO THE CENTRAL EASTERN INTERIOR.
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE
ISOLATED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN EASTERN INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST FRIDAY, AND BRING
WITH IT GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES (NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED), AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OVER 0.5 WITH NORTON SOUND AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE HAVING THE POSSIBILITY TO
RECEIVE UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH
SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR
PRUDHOE BAY AND KAKTOVIK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION REMAIN LOW AT THIS
TIME.
- A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRACES OF SNOW, WITH 1-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, WHICH WILL BE SATURDAY WEST OF UMIAT AND SUNDAY FROM
UMIAT EAST.
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ALASKA BRINGING WITH IT
WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TODAY FROM THE BERING SEA, IT
WILL BRING WITH IT WETTING RAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST, GUSTY
WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
COAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BROAD TROUGHING IS DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. THE MAIN PARENT LOW IS STATIONED IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
NORTH OF SIBERIA ALLOWING FOR WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW IS A POTENT AREA OF ENERGY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT AND EASTERN BERING SEA. OVER THE GULF, THERE IS A
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE ENERGY OVER THE BERING IS BRINGING
CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER TO WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
THE NORTH SLOPE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE
DOWNSLOPING, KEEPING IT MOSTLY DRY AND WARM TO THE EAST, WITH
COOL AND WET WEATHER WEST. IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS.
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD,
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY WILL MEANDER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE C/E INTERIOR AND DURING PEAK HEATING, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FORCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOVING INTO
SATURDAY, THE PARENT LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT THE
ENERGY OVER THE BERING WILL DIG SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH AND
MAKE A B-LINE TOWARDS THE GULF. AS THIS DIGS, IT WILL FORCE THE
LOW IN THE GULF NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE YUKON. PREVIOUSLY IT
LOOKED LIKE THIS WOULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR BUT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE STEADIEST RAIN
STAYS EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS OVER THE C/E INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. STEADY RAIN OUT WEST
WILL PERSIST BUT BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THE ENERGY DROPS
SOUTH. ON THE NORTH SLOPE, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE PARENT LOW IN
THE ARCTIC WILL STILL BE IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN
ALASKA. THIS ONE HOWEVER, WILL COME WITH A SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY
END UP BEING AROUND 980-990MB AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
BERING. THIS LOW WOULD BRING ANOTHER DOUSING OF RAIN, STRONG
WIND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WATER WHICH WILL BE ELABORATED
ON IN THE COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL SECTION.
OTHERWISE, SOMETHING ELSE WE'LL BE MONITORING IS SNOW ON THE
NORTH SLOPE AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE NORTH SLOPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THIS COLDER AIR WILL HELP CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. IN
KAKTOVIK, THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY SWITCH TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE THE SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY ICE ACCRETION. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD BE MINOR AS WELL. IN THE BROOKS
RANGE, THERE MAY BE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
ATIGUN PASS, BUT MOST SPOTS WILL SEE LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE
AS THERE ARE MANY MOVING PARTS. THE OVERALL TREND IS LOOKING
LIKE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A SERIES OF
FRONTS AND/OR LOW PRESSURES SYSTEMS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST EVERY 1 TO 2 DAYS. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS IS THE LOW IN
THE ARCTIC AND PACIFIC HIGH MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIANS, ALLOWING FOR A STORM TRACK THROUGH THE BERING. AS
THESE FRONTS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH, THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA, STRONG WIND ON THE WEST
COAST AND PERIODS OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE OF THE LOWS, BUT WITH CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN, RIVERS MAY NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO DRAIN COMPLETELY
BEFORE THE NEXT DOUSING OF RAIN. THE BUST POTENTIAL WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HIGH THOUGH, AS THE PACIFIC HIGH COULD BE A LITTLE
WEAKER ALLOWING FOR THE STORM TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTH, OR STRONGER,
ALLOWING FOR A FARTHER NORTH STORM TRACK. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM INTO THE BERING WHICH COULD SHIFT
NORTH/SOUTH. MINOR SHIFTS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHERN ALASKA OR THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF
COAST. REGARDLESS, IT IS LOOKING LIKE FALL IN THE BERING WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN AHEAD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
FIRST, A FAIRLY WEAK LOW TODAY WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE
WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1-2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE
WITH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS
WILL BE IN NORTON SOUND. WATER LEVELS RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
SECOND, ANOTHER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS ONE MAY BE A BIT STRONGER. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH, BUT INITIAL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
WATER LEVEL RISES AROUND 2-5 FEET IN NORTON SOUND (HIGHEST NEAR
SHAKTOOLIK/KOYUK) WITH ANOTHER 1-2 FOOT RISE IN THE YUKON DELTA.
THESE WILL FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. AS OF NOW, THIS SEEMS LIKE A MARGINAL HIGH SURF
ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE COAST WHICH WOULD MAINLY LEAD TO BEACH
EROSION.
FIRE WEATHER
NO CONCERNS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE IT WILL CONTINUOUSLY
BE WET AND COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE INTERIOR IS A DIFFERENT STORY BUT NOT INHERENTLY "BAD".
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WARMEST IN
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. MIN RHS IN MOST SPOTS
WILL BE ABOVE 50% BUT THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL BE AROUND
30-40% THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEAK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AROUND THE AK RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AK
RANGE MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH IN ISABEL PASS AND 35 MPH IN
WINDY PASS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME CONCERN TO THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE UPWARDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE AK
RANGE ON SUNDAY AND WE WILL BE NOTICING A SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS LIKE TO GET FUNNELED THROUGH
THE TANANA VALLEY AND INCREASE IN SPEED. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-30 MPH FOR MOST
OF SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY WITH SPOTTY
WETTING RAINS LIKELY TO OCCUR. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AND IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP NORTH OF
TOK, IT COULD BRING A GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH
OF THE UPPER TANANA. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 0.05-0.15" SO IT IS NOT COMPLETELY UNREASONABLE TO
THINK TOK CAN GET A BRIEF WETTING RAIN FROM A SHOWER, BUT IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THAT TO COME TO FRUITION.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS FOR RIVERS AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH ALL OF THE RAIN
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TREMENDOUSLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ801-802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ805-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ806-807.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ810-850-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ817-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ856.
KEY MESSAGES...DONNER
SYNOPSIS...DONNER
SHORT TERM...BIANCO
LONG TERM...BIANCO
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...BIANCO
FIRE WEATHER...BIANCO
HYDROLOGY...BIANCO
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