286
FXAK69 PAFG 112312
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
312 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 0.50" TO
1.00" IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE WHITE MTNS. LESS RAIN, AROUND 0.10" IN TOK.
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND UP TO
40 MPH IN THE ABOVE 2000FT.
- SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER WEATHER LIKELY
ON MONDAY.
- ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOAKING
RAIN AND GUSTY WIND LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG AK RANGE GAP WINDS.
- HIGH TEMPS REMAIN STEADY, IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT, LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT
STAYING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
- AROUND 0.10" TO 0.25" OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW, HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00" IN THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW.
- SHOWERS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
DRIER.
- ANOTHER LOW ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE UPWARDS OF
1.50" IN SOME SPOTS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.
- HIGH TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
SHIFT WEST ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY. EXPECT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY, STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.15" OR LESS FOR MOST OF
THE FLATS AND UP TO 1.00" IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE WITH 0.10" TO 0.25" FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A LOW IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA PROVIDING A WARM FRONT WITH STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH FROM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE AROUND FAIRBANKS BY
MIDDAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARRIVES SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA, IT DOES DRY OUT BRIEFLY ONCE
AGAIN. WESTERN ALASKA WILL BE DRIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF MONDAY BEING DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPE. ANOTHER LOW MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN BERING FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN WESTERN AK FROM MONDAY PM
TO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES A 986 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND
PROVIDING A WARM FRONT WHICH IS PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN AK FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW. THIS LOW IS THE MAIN CULPRIT
FOR ALL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT NOW. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEADY RAIN
LIKELY TONIGHT. THE WESTERN INTERIOR IS CURRENTLY GETTING
STEADY RAIN WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT WHILE THE
NORTH SLOPE SEES LINGERING SHOWERS. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR BRIEFLY DRIER WEATHER BEHIND IT. THIS DRY WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE WILL SEE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WHILE THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER IN MOST SPOTS
OUTSIDE OF SW AK AS A HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL BE
TRANSIENT AS A LOW MOVES INTO SW AK BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING A BIT MORE IN DEPTH, THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF MORE
SUBTLE FEATURES BRINGING LOCALIZED WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ALASKA. ONE OF WHICH WILL BE A BARRIER JET ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO
SPEED UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM NUIQSUT TO KAKTOVIK.
IN GENERAL, WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.
IN THE INTERIOR, A COUPLE OF LOCALIZED EFFECTS WE WILL BE
MONITORING ARE AK RANGE GAP WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WIND GUSTS WILL STICK TO 45 MPH OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING IN ISABEL AND WINDY PASSES. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER THIS, A LOW IN THE
BERING WILL HELP DRIVE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT WIND GUSTS BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
SEE THEM APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 MPH IN BOTH PASSES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A BERING SEA LOW
MOVING NORTH TOWARD ST. LAWERENCE ISLAND, AND A SUSTAINED RIDGE
DEVELOPED OVER ALASKA. AS THE BERING SEA LOW TRACKS TO THE
NORTON SOUND ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ALASKA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE.
AS THE BERING SEA LOW PROGRESSES TO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, IT WILL FORM A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
SUSTAINED RIDGE OVER ALASKA, ALLOWING FOR A STRONG 925MB WIND TO
FORM WITHIN THIS STORM. AT THE SAME TIME, ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
WRAPPED INTO THIS STORMS FLOW, AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MIXED LAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE INTERIOR THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEST COAST, ALASKA RANGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
INTERIOR EXPERIENCING HIGHER WIND GUSTS LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
MOST RECENT MODEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR RECEIVING GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 55 MPH, WITH
THE WEST COAST POTENTIALLY RECEIVING UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH. THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONGER GUSTS, WITH ISABEL
AND WINDY PASS SPECIFICALLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE EXACT SPEEDS AND IMPACT OF THESE
WINDS MAY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF WIND POTENTIAL, THIS SYSTEM HAS A POSSIBILITY TO
CARRY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. BEFORE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, AS THIS STORM TRAVELS TOWARDS THE BERING SEA,
SOME MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY PHASE INTO ITS FLOW,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ONCE IT REACHES ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
TOTALS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTH SEWARD PENINSULA, SPECIFICALLY IN LOCALIZED LOCATIONS FROM
HUSLIA TO MCGRATH, AND NOME. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE BEING UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. MORE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH CURRENT
GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATING UP TO 1 INCH IN MOST AREAS WITHIN THIS
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED, THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AND TOTALS MAY CHANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WATER LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. BY 4 AM, THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS FROM KIVALINA TO DEERING AND
THAT IS WHEN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
FROM POINT HOPE NORTHWARD, WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR UTQIAGVIK FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 PM TOMORROW NIGHT.
AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF THROUGH 10 PM TOMORROW NIGHT
FROM POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT. THESE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE
MAINLY ISSUED FOR EROSION. AFTER 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT, WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT AND LOWERING WATER
LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR CONCERNS MOVING FORWARD, RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AROUND 0.10" TO
0.25" EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEAK, BUT ISABEL PASS WILL
GUST UPWARDS OF 45 MPH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE. WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A ROUND OF STRONG GAP WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR AND THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE UPPER
CHENA RIVER WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RISE NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE TOMORROW. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE RIVER REMAINS
BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE WHICH WOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY FLOODING.
BUT, IF THE RAIN IS A BIT HEAVIER TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME
WATER APPROACHING CHSR. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
RIVERS AND CREEKS DRAINING THE BROOKS RANGE AS THEY ARE
CURRENTLY RISING INTO ACTION STAGE. PARTICULARLY TUTAK CREEK
NEAR KIVALINA WHICH IS AROUND 12.16FT. IT WILL BEGIN TO LEVEL
OFF GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL KEEP RIVERS HIGH, BUT FLOODING IS NOT OF GREAT
CONCERN RIGHT NOW.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR AKZ803.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ802-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ803>805-
852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ806-807-
856.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ808-
855-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ808-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ809-810-
853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ811-812-
857-858.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ811-858.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ813-814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ859.
KEY MESSAGES...BIANCO
SYNOPSIS.......BIANCO
SHORT TERM.....BIANCO
LONG TERM......DONNER
COASTAL........BIANCO
FIRE WEATHER...BIANCO
HYDROLOGY......BIANCO
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