406
FXAK69 PAFG 121514
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
714 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
- A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING & EXITING TO THE EAST WITH
CONTINUED RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR TODAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND UP TO 40 MPH
IN THE ABOVE 2,000 FT.
- SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER WEATHER LIKELY
ON MONDAY.
- ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING MONDAY EVENING WITH SOAKING
RAIN & GUSTY WIND LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, & POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG AK RANGE GAP WINDS.
- HIGH TEMPS REMAIN STEADY, IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN & DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND 0.75" FOR THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
INTO THIS EVENING.
- LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIER.
- ANOTHER LOW ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE UPWARDS OF
1.5" IN SOME SPOTS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.
- HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT WEST ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
EXPECT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY, STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.1" OR LESS FOR MOST OF
THE FLATS AND UP TO AROUND 0.75" IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE WITH 0.1" TO 0.2" FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHES PAST THE CENTRAL & EASTERN
INTERIOR FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WETTING THE AREA. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN BEHIND IT, BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE GENERAL FAIRBANKS AREA. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRIER UNTIL ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE BERING SEA, WHICH WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS & MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL, ONCE AGAIN, TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE & PUSHING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
990MB LOW & ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION & GUSTY WINDS
FOR THE BROOKS RANGE & ARCTIC COAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT AREA &
WEAKEN. THE NORTH SLOPE & BROOKS RANGE WILL BE DRY FROM EARLY WEEK
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A 990MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA & ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH, TERMINATING
AT THE BROOKS RANGE WILL WEAKEN TO 1,000MB+ WHILE PUSHING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTH SLOPE, ARCTIC COAST, & THE BROOKS RANGE FOR THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION & STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MEANTIME. AFTER THAT PASSES, THE NORTH SLOPE, ARCTIC COAST, & BROOKS
RANGE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY, A
WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE & ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ARE
PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING TO SOAK THE AREA UNTIL IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT & WEAKEN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN BEHIND
IT, BRINGING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE-IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A
LOCALIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE GENERAL FAIRBANKS AREA FOR THAT
TIMEFRAME. AFTER THAT, THE RIDGE WILL REGAIN CONTROL, KEEPING THINGS
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL & EASTERN INTERIOR.
NOTABLY, AS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE STREAMS IN THE CHENA RIVER
BASIN, FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.66 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, FALLING SHORT OF IT'S RECORD OF 0.75 INCHES FOR
FRIDAY'S 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE
ABOUT THAT CAN BE SEEN IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. FOR THE
WESTERN INTERIOR & BERING SEA COAST, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON
THE DRIER SIDE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL
ANOTHER BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE GENERAL
NORTON SOUND AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BRINGING IN
MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL & STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THAT AREA
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
ON TUESDAY WITH A BERING SEA LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARD ST. LAWERENCE
ISLAND, AND A SUSTAINED RIDGE DEVELOPED OVER ALASKA. AS THE BERING
SEA LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTON SOUND ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE
FORCED EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ALASKA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA RANGE.
AS THE BERING SEA LOW PROGRESSES TO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, IT WILL FORM A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUSTAINED RIDGE
OVER ALASKA, ALLOWING FOR A STRONG 925MB WIND TO FORM WITHIN THIS
STORM. AT THE SAME TIME, ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WRAPPED INTO THIS STORMS
FLOW, AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MIXED LAYER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE INTERIOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEST COAST,
ALASKA RANGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR EXPERIENCING HIGHER WIND
GUSTS LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR RECEIVING GUSTS BETWEEN 40
TO 55 MPH, WITH THE WEST COAST POTENTIALLY RECEIVING UP TO 50 TO 60
MPH. THE ALASKA RANGE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONGER GUSTS, WITH
ISABEL AND WINDY PASS SPECIFICALLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE EXACT SPEEDS AND IMPACT OF THESE
WINDS MAY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF WIND POTENTIAL, THIS SYSTEM HAS A POSSIBILITY TO CARRY A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. BEFORE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, AS THIS STORM TRAVELS TOWARDS THE BERING SEA, SOME MOISTURE
FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY PHASE INTO ITS FLOW, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ONCE IT REACHES
ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTH SEWARD PENINSULA, SPECIFICALLY IN
LOCALIZED LOCATIONS FROM HUSLIA TO MCGRATH, AND NOME. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE BEING UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. MORE
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
CURRENT GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATING UP TO 1 INCH IN MOST AREAS WITHIN
THIS REGION. HOWEVER, WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED, THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AND TOTALS MAY CHANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...AS OF SATURDAY MORNING, WATER LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT HOPE. THEREFORE, THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THERE WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. THERE REMAINS A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY OUT FOR AN AREA GENERALLY AROUND A POINT HOPE TO
WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WATER LEVELS
GENERALLY GETTING UP TO 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE,
WHICH MAY MAINLY BRING MINOR BEACH EROSION AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
AFTER THAT POINT, WATER LEVELS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE.
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CONTINUES TODAY WITH AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2
ADDITIONAL INCHES IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY / MUKLIK FIRE AREA.
THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE & ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAINING ON THE
MORE MOIST SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAINING AROUND 50% OR ABOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
STREAMS IN THE CHENA RIVER BASIN HAVE REMAINED BELOW
MINOR FLOOD STAGE & SHOULD STAY THAT WAY AS THE AREA HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED ITS HEAVIEST RAINFALL, & THE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, &
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD AFTER RECEIVING A BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOTABLY, FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.66 INCHES OF RAINFALL, FALLING SHORT OF IT'S
RECORD OF 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY'S 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO WATCH THE
STREAMS DRAINING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE FROM PRECIPITATION RECENTLY RECEIVED, LIKE THE KOBUK,
NOATAK, & WULIK RIVERS, ESPECIALLY THE WULIK RIVER, AS IT IS IN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT CRESTED AT 13.93 FT
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT & WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA UNTIL 2PM SUNDAY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ801>803.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING FOR PKZ802-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ803-
811-852-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PKZ804>806-808-855-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING FOR PKZ804-805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ807-
853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ809-
810.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ811-857-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ812-858.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR PKZ814-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR PKZ814-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ815-
861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ815-
861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR PKZ860.
KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS.......CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM.....CHAMBERS
LONG TERM......DONNER
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL........CHAMBERS
FIRE WEATHER...CHAMBERS
HYDROLOGY......CHAMBERS
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