012
FXAK69 PAFG 122307
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER
RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR.
- WINDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND 40 MPH ABOVE 2000FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1.00" ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS, UP TO 65 MPH IN THE AK RANGE
PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME
ISOLATED TOMORROW WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LIKELY.
- BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST
AND 35 MPH IN THE INTERIOR.
- A DRY PERIOD LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND WIND ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT IN SW AK AND PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVY WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND 1.00" TO
2.00" IN THE INTERIOR WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
NEARLY NO RAIN FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD.
- WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- GUSTY WEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY, WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FLATS, A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN TODAY/TOMORROW IN THE BROOKS RANGE
BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH AND LIKELY MELT.
- MONDAY IS MUCH DRIER WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LIKELY.
- PERIODS OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
ATIGUN/ANAKTUVUK PASSES THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION GOES.
- EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ATIGUN PASS WILL BE COLDEST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS BUT WE WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
QUIETER WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT RAINMAKER MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY, SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN ALASKA. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. TOMORROW DRIES OUT GRADUALLY FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH MONDAY BEING DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
AND NORTH SLOPE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO IT BEING DRY ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE SW INTERIOR WHICH BEGINS TO SEE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW MOVES ONSHORE. THIS RAIN GRADUALLY
MOVES NORTH, TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND GALENA BY THE EVENING. RAIN THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND SOAKS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A 992MB LOW IS PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE
BEAUFORT SEA AROUND 73-75N LATITUDE. THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT DRIFTS EAST BUT WILL PROVIDE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ARCTIC
PLAINS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG, GUSTING UP
TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL END GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM UTQIAGVIK
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF
THERE. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE MAY ACCUMULATE, BUT
ANYTHING THAT STICKS WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT CHILLY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
NORTH SLOPE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH UPPER
TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ATIGUN PASS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS A FRONT
MOVES NORTH INTO THE BROOKS RANGE. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO FALL BUT THE UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS
IS THE OUTLIER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE BUT THE CMC AND ECMWF BOTH BRING SNOW, HEAVY
AT TIMES ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. FOR THE
FAIRBANKS AREA, SHOWERS LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT LEAVING A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
STRONGEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO DRY OUT LEAVING TO A MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. AS IT DRIES OUT, WE WILL
NOTICE WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE AK RANGE PASSES MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES INTO SW AK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE LOW HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE EVENT, BUT ADVISORY
LEVEL (50-60 MPH) TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL (70 MPH) WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE LOW, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY
THROUGH THE PASSES REGARDLESS. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY IN THE
INTERIOR, GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 25 TO 40MPH ONCE AGAIN, HIGHEST IN
THE TERRAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WIND AND
IT WILL LIKELY BE A SOAKING RAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SO ALL IN
ALL, THE TIME TO GET OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DONE WITH BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MONDAY BECAUSE TUESDAY SEES SOME
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR IS ALSO UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS OVER
THE BERING STRAIT REGION ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS HAVE BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY, AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST
AND 35 MPH IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN WEAKENING
BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF TOMORROW WILL COME WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING BUT THERE WILL BE MORE DRY TIME ACROSS THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW MOVES
ONSHORE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND COAST, THROUGH THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR
AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE YUKON DELTA. THIS WIND SWEPT
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN, THERE MAY
BE AROUND 1.00" TO 2.00" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WITH LESS RAIN OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND BERING STRAIT
REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS BECAUSE
OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY WHEREVER IT
SETS UP. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE CMC AND ECMWF BRING HEAVY RAIN FOR
ALL OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND UP TO THE BROOKS RANGE. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARDS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE CMC AND ECMWF, SO
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY, A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA. MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OF OVER HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE AND RAY
MOUNTAINS, THE ALASKA RANGE, AND ACROSS THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGE, PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. A SECOND LOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND WIND TO THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
INTERIOR, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ON EACH OF THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SATURDAY, YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA COULD BRING FURTHER
RAIN/PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WATER LEVELS ARE PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON FROM POINT HOPE TO
UTQIAGVIK WITH RISES AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET, HIGHEST NEAR WAINWRIGHT
AND LOWEST NEAR UTQIAGVIK. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS
COASTAL EROSION. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WATER LEVELS
GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TOMORROW. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY ISSUED WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON DOES GRADUALLY DRY OUT LEADING TO A MOSTLY
DRY DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST, AROUND 0.25" TO 0.50",
IN DELTA JUNCTION AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH/EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND MIN RHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE AK RANGE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
CENTRAL INTERIOR:
AFTER RECENT RAINS, THE CHENA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CREST AROUND 22.5 FT BELOW MOOSE CREEK
DAM. THIS LEVEL WOULD BE RIGHT AT ACTION STAGE AND THOSE NEAR OR
ALONG THE RIVER WILL NOTICE THAT THE CHENA IS AT BANKFULL. WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING FROM THIS, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS RISE, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED WATER POOLING IN
TYPICAL LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WESTERN INTERIOR:
THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER IS RUNNING HIGH AND WILL BE SLOW TO DROP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAVY SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1.00" TO 2.00" OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RIVER RISES AGAIN. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER
RIVER FLOODING IS A MAJOR CONCERN, BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW
THE RIVERS RESPOND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING UP TO
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
THE KOBUK RIVER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLS ON TUESDAY, RIVER LEVELS CAN RISE AGAIN. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE:
THE WULIK RIVER ROSE RAPIDLY TO ABOUT 13.93 FT LAST NIGHT BUT IS
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE AGAIN. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN SETS
UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIVER CAN RISE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE IT SNOWS IN THE BROOKS RANGE,
SO THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH OF A RISE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ801>803.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ802-
853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ803-
811-852-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ804-
805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ809-
810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ812>814-858-
859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR PKZ814-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ815-
861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ815-
861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SUNDAY FOR PKZ860.
KEY MESSAGES...BIANCO
SYNOPSIS.......BIANCO
SHORT TERM.....BIANCO
LONG TERM......SALTZMAN
COASTAL........BIANCO
FIRE WEATHER...BIANCO
HYDROLOGY......BIANCO
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