613
FXAK69 PAFG 131441
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
641 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR & SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
- WINDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND 35 MPH ABOVE 2000FT WITH WEAKENING WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1.00" ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO
AROUND 50-65 MPH IN THE AK RANGE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BECOME ISOLATED TOMORROW WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
LIKELY.
- A DRY PERIOD LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND WIND ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT IN SW AK AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
- RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVY WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND 1.00" TO 2.00" IN THE
INTERIOR WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST AND NEARLY NO RAIN FROM
THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD.
- WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- GUSTY WEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FLATS, A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN SUNDAY IN THE BROOKS RANGE, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH AND WILL LIKELY MELT.
- MONDAY IS MUCH DRIER WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE LIKELY.
- PERIODS OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ATIGUN/ANAKTUVUK
PASSES THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION GOES.
- EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ATIGUN PASS WILL BE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD
FOR THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE GENERAL FAIRBANKS AREA. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRIER UNTIL ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE BERING SEA, WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS & MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL, ONCE AGAIN, TO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE & PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDWEEK. A 997MB LOW OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA & ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS & GUSTY WINDS FROM A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE, NORTH SLOPE, & ARCTIC COAST FOR THE REST OF
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT AREA & WEAKEN. THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, BUT
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NORTH SLOPE &
BROOKS RANGE WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDWEEK AFTER WHICH A DISTURBANCE BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
BROOKS RANGE & NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A 997MB LOW LOCATED OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA & ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH,
TERMINATING AT THE BROOKS RANGE WILL WEAKEN TO 1,000MB+ WHILE
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH SLOPE, ARCTIC COAST, & THE BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT
RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS & STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MEANTIME. THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE,
BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTER THAT PASSES, THE NORTH SLOPE, ARCTIC COAST, & BROOKS RANGE
GENERALLY DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN BEHIND IT,
BRINGING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVED-IN FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A
LOCALIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVERHEAD, WHICH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE GENERAL FAIRBANKS
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT, THE RIDGE THAT MOVED IN
BEHIND THE PREVIOUS AR FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA & WEAKENED YESTERDAY MORNING, WILL REGAIN CONTROL, KEEPING
THINGS ON THE DRIER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL &
EASTERN INTERIOR. NOTABLY, AS WE HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO WATCH
THE STREAMS IN THE CHENA RIVER BASIN AROUND FAIRBANKS FOLLOWING
THE MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL IN THE BASIN FROM THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT MOVED THROUGH, WE EXPECT STREAMS AROUND
THAT AREA TO CONTINUE TO GENERALLY RISE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THAT & THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WILL BE RECEIVED
TODAY. THE CHENA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFUL DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEREFORE, A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. MORE ABOUT THAT CAN BE SEEN IN
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR & BERING SEA
COAST, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR A DECENT
CHUNK OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL ANOTHER BERING SEA
LOW APPROACHES & PUSHES INTO THE GENERAL NORTON SOUND AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING IN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE BERING SEA COAST AREA &
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON & LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS IT COMES
ASHORE. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN &
WINDY & GUSTY CONDITIONS START TO MOVE INTO THE YUKON DELTA /
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA COASTAL AREA FIRST. AS IT COMES ASHORE, THE
LOW'S TRACK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, PUSHING INTO & THROUGH THE
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME WHILE
WEAKENING.
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SOME QUITE STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY THAT AREAS LIKE ISABEL & WINDY PASSES MAY RECEIVE THE HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 65 TO 70 MPH THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING TOGETHER
ON DEPICTING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
OVERHEAD, GIVING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INSTEAD OF STRAIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW, & WE ALSO LOOK TO BE LOSING THE UPPER-LEVEL COLD AIR
MIXING SUPPORT FOR FREQUENT GUSTS THAT HIGH, AS WELL. ALSO, THE
GRADIENT IS TRENDING MORE RELAXED AS THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF
THE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT WEAKER. THE EXACT SPEEDS AND IMPACT OF
THESE WINDS MAY STILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THINGS MAY CHANGE DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY, A BROAD
AREA OF RAIN WILL SOLIDLY EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA. MOST OF THE INTERIOR
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF OVER HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS, THE ALASKA RANGE, AND ACROSS THE DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS AND ALASKA
RANGE, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, SOME RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE & INTENSITY. A WEAKER & CONTINUALLY WEAKENING SECOND LOW
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN AND WIND TO THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ON EACH
OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS EXCEEDING HALF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. BY SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA COULD BRING FURTHER PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LATERAL EXTENT &
INTENSITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS QUITE LOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AN AREA
GENERALLY AROUND POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH SURF & ANY FURTHER BEACH
EROSION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AS OF SUNDAY MORNING, WATER LEVELS
ARE DROPPING & WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY, TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER STAYING LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY / TOK / MUKLUK FIRE AREA.
THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE (IN THE 50S) & ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
REMAINING ON THE MORE MOIST SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAINING AT
AROUND 50% OR ABOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S & MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 45%. MORE RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THAT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 0.1 INCHES OR LESS AS THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY / TOK / MUKLUK FIRE AREA WILL BE GENERALLY RAIN-
SHADOWED BY THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
CENTRAL INTERIOR: AFTER RECENT RAINS, THE CHENA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CREST AROUND 22.5 FT BELOW MOOSE
CREEK DAM. THIS LEVEL WOULD BE RIGHT AT ACTION STAGE AND THOSE NEAR
OR ALONG THE RIVER WILL NOTICE THAT THE CHENA IS AT BANKFULL. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE FLOODING FROM THIS, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS RISE, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED WATER POOLING IN
TYPICAL LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WESTERN INTERIOR: THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER IS RUNNING HIGH AND WILL BE
SLOW TO DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAVY
SLUG OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1.00" TO 2.00" OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE RIVER RISES AGAIN. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER
RIVER FLOODING IS A MAJOR CONCERN, BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW THE
RIVERS RESPOND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT.
THE KOBUK RIVER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS ON TUESDAY, RIVER LEVELS CAN RISE AGAIN. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE: THE WULIK RIVER ROSE RAPIDLY TO ABOUT 13.93 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DROP. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
RAIN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIVER CAN RISE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE IT SNOWS IN THE BROOKS RANGE,
SO THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH OF A RISE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM AKDT
MONDAY FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ860-
861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ861.
KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS.......CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM.....CHAMBERS
LONG TERM......SALTZMAN/CHAMBERS
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL........CHAMBERS
FIRE WEATHER...CHAMBERS
HYDROLOGY......BIANCO/CHAMBERS
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