595
FXAK69 PAFG 132248
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THE BRIEF PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.
- THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5" AND 2" POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR 2" EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. MORE INFO IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION.
- GUSTY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE VALLEYS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH POSSIBLE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ISABEL PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE
WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING
NORTH INTO THE BERING.
- EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 0.5" AND
1.25" EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST (HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG
SOUTHERN PORTIONS), 1.25" TO 2" EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM.
- STRONGEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE YK DELTA COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. A HIGH WIND WATCH AND A SERIES OF WIND
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MID
WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED REGARDING TEMPERATURES.
- SNOW CHANCES MOVE IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE ON
TUESDAY. 1" TO 3" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NW ARCTIC COAST
RETURN TUESDAY. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 MPH.
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE AS
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ATTENTION TURNS
TO A LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE BERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
WITH SOME CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL, A SERIES OF FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND FNSB. WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, NOT MUCH
IS EXPECTED IN REGARDS TO COASTAL CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOT MUCH GOING ON OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS WEAKENING ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A WESTERLY PROGRESSING
SHORTWAVE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN COOLER LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL PLAY MORE OF A ROLE WITH SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
ATTENTION TURNS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL EXTEND E-SE FROM THE LOW, PROGRESSING NE FROM THE YK DELTA
AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BERING.
IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN SOONER, THIS WOULD ALLOW IT TO
TAKE MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK AS IT WON'T BE ABLE TO GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE FLOW OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
IF THIS WERE TO MANIFEST, IT COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS, MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS, AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE INTERIOR AS THE
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY GET BLOCKED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN BERING
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THIS LOW EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD
FOR GUSTY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. HOWEVER,
THIS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOLER AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-RATIO SNOW WITH
EXPECTED TOTALS BETWEEN 1" AND 3" THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGER WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT BERING
SEA LOW WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY, WHERE STRONGER WINDS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, KEEPING
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR. ADDITIONALLY, A VERY WEAK
(>1000 HPA) SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING AND ONSHORE ALONG THE
YK DELTA. GIVEN ITS STRENGTH (OR LACK THEREOF), PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT STRONG WINDS, AND AS A RESULT, NO COASTAL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SINCE THIS LOW WILL NOT HAVE SWATH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THIS TIME AROUND, RAIN WILL BE LIGHT, SHOWERY, AND LIMITED
TO THE WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE, HOWEVER, THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF WILL SUPPORT AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIPPING SOUTH
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MODELS HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH PAST THE 7-8 DAY MARK,
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC AIR COULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS
NEAR/BELOW FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK AS THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX APPROACHES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING A LOW N-NE JUST OFF THE COAST
OF THE YK DELTA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH. A STRONGER LOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, WHICH COULD BRING SOME LOW-END HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS MORE OF THE WEST COAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YK DELTA COAST COULD SEE WATER
LEVELS RISE TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOUT THE MEAN HIGH WATER. THIS WOULD
JUST BE UNDER HIGH SURF CRITERIA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODELS
RUNS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOOKING OVER THE UPPER TANANA, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE START OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH THIS, THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH VALUES AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AS THE
EDGE OF A WARM FRONT MOVES NE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.1"
AND 0.25" THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA.
HOWEVER, GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN 20 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS UPWARDS OF 2.00"
IN SOME SPOTS. THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH AND
BANKFULL IN MCGRATH BUT WILL BE DROPPING BELOW BANKFULL BY
MONDAY MORNING.
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS, MUCH OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR POOLING AND/OR PONDING OF
WATER BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE YUKON RIVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD, SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL SEE RISES
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, THE CHENA RIVER IS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. IT WILL APPROACH BANKFULL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. WITH INCOMING
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 0.50" TO 1.00" FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY, THE RIVER MAY EXCEED BANKFULL LATER THIS WEEK. WHILE
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE
AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR POOLING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN AND AROUND THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUNDS. ANY AREAS OF STANDING WATER MAY MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ825.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ830-851-852.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
AKZ834.
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AKZ843-844.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ846.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ847.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ852.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ861.
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