505
FXAK69 PAFG 162241
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
241 PM AKDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL RANGING BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ARE RESULTING IN HIGH WATER LEVELS ON
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS.
- GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST RECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL
SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT RAINFALL OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50'S TO NEAR 60
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A WEAKER STORM WILL PASS THROUGH THE BERING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GENERAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50" WILL BE COMMON WITH
THIS FEATURE.
- HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN NORTON
SOUND AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COASTLINE NEAR NOME. HERE
RAINFALL OF 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY ALONG THE
WESTERN COASTLINE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF NOME.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INITIALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AS MOISTURE TRACKS NORTH FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE BERING SEA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE STORM THAT MOVED ASHORE FROM THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOK RANGE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
INTERIOR, DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SECOND, BUT MUCH
WEAKER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE WEST COAST, BUT OVERALL
RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED WITH PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS. A SLIGHT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP THE WEEK WITH
COLDER CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
WHILE WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, THE WHEELS ARE IN MOTION THAT
POINT TO A GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE GOING FORWARD. AND MUCH OF
THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSEN IT'S GRIP ON THE REGION. THIS IS
EVIDENT AS THE RECENT COASTAL STORM FROM THE BERING CONTINUES TO
WORK EASTWARDS THROUGH THE INTERIOR, FURTHER DEGRADING THAT
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER IN DOING SO, THE MOIST TAP THAT HAS
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STORM HAS SHIFTED TO MORE OF AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION THAT WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR INTO TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE, AND THE
RUNOFF OF THIS LOOKS TO KEEP AREAS RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING
NEAR BANKFULL, THUS HYDRO CONCERNS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DESPITE A DOWNWARD TREND IN OVERALL RAINFALL AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEK.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM MAKES IT'S WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY TOMORROW, UPPER ENERGY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WITH A WINTRY MIX ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE, ONGOING
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO
ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY MOVING EASTWARDS AROUND A BUILDING
ARCTIC TROUGH. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHTS SIDE
(GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES) AND WINDS APPEAR TO STAY ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THERE AS WELL.
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY FADES THURSDAY, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IN THE BERING. THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING ADDITIONAL WIND AND RAIN TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SEVERAL
ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LESS THAN THE MOST RECENT STORM WAS. IN
ADDITION THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP, SO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE
LIGHTER. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AND WIND UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHILE IT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEPENING
ARCTIC TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS DO AGREE
THAT SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COASTLINE BY SATURDAY. AS TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING WITH
THIS FEATURE, SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THIS
SNOW WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS, BUT HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
OF NOME COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL OVER
THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, THE CURRENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD,
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS
RANGE BEFORE LULLING SLIGHTLY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES THIS
WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION, WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHOWERY AND
INTERMITTENT. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AT HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH SLOPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROZEN, WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES AS A NEW
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE BERING SEA. SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD
REMAINS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE BROAD SIGNAL FAVORS RENEWED CYCLONIC INFLUENCE
AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE,
AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AS THE PATTERN
SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH SNOW INCREASINGLY FAVORED OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
MODEL QPF SPREAD REMAINS HIGH UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION VALUES RANGING FROM 0.25 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE YK DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH VALUES LIKELY TO
CHANGE AS MODELS COME INTO FURTHER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
WITH THE PREVIOUS BERING LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALASKA, COASTAL CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED. A WEAKER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BERING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER, NO COASTAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAX GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION. A
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HYDROLOGY
THE REMNANTS OF A BERING LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
YUKON AND THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT
FEED THESE SYSTEMS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1.0" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WITH THIS NEXT PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION, AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 1.0" IS EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF FNSB. MOST
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FOR THE CHENA RIVER BASIN AS SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE WATER LEVELS RISE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CHENA RIVER BASIN.
FOR MORE UPDATED RIVER INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO
WATER.NOAA.GOV OR WEATHER.GOV/APRFC.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ834-838>845.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ838-843-844.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ804-
852.
KEY MESSAGES...LANEY
SYNOPSIS.......LANEY
SHORT TERM.....LANEY
LONG TERM......CRUZ
COASTAL........TWOMBLY
FIRE WEATHER...TWOMBLY
HYDROLOGY......TWOMBLY
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