087
FXAK69 PAFG 172224
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AKDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
- WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ALONG RIVERS AROUND FNSB WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
- A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM THE UPPER TANANA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE MID WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAINY PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH FROM THE CHUKCHI.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ELEVATION OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1" POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED ON FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND THE
BROOKS RANGE WITH TOTALS UP TO 1" AND 3" POSSIBLE,
RESPECTIVELY.
- A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
SYNOPSIS
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER BASIN,
UPSTREAM OF MOOSE CREEK DAM. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER
PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, NW ARCTIC COAST, AND THE BROOKS RANGE
AS A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTH FROM THE CHUKCHI. A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH THE COOLER TRENDS
OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTH SLOPE. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE MID WEEKEND. THIS COULD
PROVIDE BRIEF ROUNDS OF INCREASED GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, MANY AREAS HAVE REPORTED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED FOR MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, WITH SOME AREAS AT ELEVATIONS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED STREAMS AND
CREEKS, ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE AVOIDED ACTUAL FLOODING. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE CHENA RIVER
THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, BUT AT
THIS TIME, EXPECT IMPACTS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN NATURE.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
GAPS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR, AND PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS
IS TRENDING DOWNWARDS, WITH THE BEST REMAINING CHANCES LINGERING
IN AREAS OF ELEVATION. RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS AND RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL LARGELY
SUBSIDE IN THEIR ENTIRETY BY FRIDAY. THE BIG EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
FOR THE WEST COAST AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE A DECAYING
LOW MOVING E ACROSS THE BERING BEFORE STALLING AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE INLAND AND KEEP CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
SOME SNOW SQUALLS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE NW
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS COLDER AIR (WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14C) MOVE OVER THE STILL
COMPARATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE CHUKCHI SEA, WITH DYNAMIC
FORCING AIDED BY A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SNOW COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES, AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVEN AT SEA LEVEL. THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE THOSE ABOVE 1000FT IN THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN CHANGE
BACK TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTER THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES MOVE THROUGH.
LOOKING ELSEWHERE, LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY, HELPING TO REDIRECT THE STRONGEST
SYSTEMS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE GULF. THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL WRING MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THESE SYSTEMS
BEFORE THEIR REMNANTS REACH US, ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME ENERGY WILL STILL REACH US. A WEAK FRONT WILL
ALSO MANAGE TO REORGANIZE ITSELF AND MOVE UP NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND SO EXPECT A ROUND OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THIS, ALTHOUGH QPF TOTALS WILL BE FAR
MORE LIMITED IN NATURE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH FOR THE ALASKA RANGE, BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE FRONT KEEPS
MOVING NORTH, SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 FOR PARTS OF THE BROOKS RANGE, INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS FRONT'S REMNANTS
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, DO EXPECT SOME SNOW POTENTIAL AS WELL, ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK GULF ORIGIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCER, WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA, INCREASING COLD
ADVECTION AND CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, BROOKS RANGE, WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA, AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, A LOW IN THE ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP A MOIST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE,
KEEPING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK RIDGE MAY BUILD IN WESTWARD. IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, CONCERN SHIFTS TO A POTENTIAL LOW
THAT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE BERING FROM THE PACIFIC.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS HIGH ON EXACT STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TIMING OF THE LOW. WITH A LOW IN THE BERING, RENEWED WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MAINLY ACROSS THE YK DELTA AND SEWARD
PENINSULA. STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE BERING AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LIKELY ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS
STORM AND WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED UPDATES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
COME FURTHER INTO AGREEMENT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
LEVELS PERSIST. LINGERING SHOWERS IN FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING, YIELDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES HOLDING AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHENA RIVER, AS RECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF ALREADY
LARGELY SATURATED SOIL HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ELEVATED CREEKS
AND STREAMS FEEDING INTO IT. THE CHENA RIVER ITSELF IS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SUBSIDING
ON FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE OTHER STREAMS AROUND FNSB TO FOLLOW SUIT,
ALTHOUGH NOT REACHING FLOOD STAGES IN THEIR CASES. WHILE SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ONLY A SMALL
FRACTION OF WHAT THEY'VE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, AND SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RUNOFF INDUCED CONCERNS TO LAST BEYOND SATURDAY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ838-843-844.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ806-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ816-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ850-
853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ856.
KEY MESSAGES...TWOMBLY
SYNOPSIS.......TWOMBLY
SHORT TERM.....SPANN
LONG TERM......CRUZ
COASTAL........TWOMBLY
FIRE WEATHER...SATCHER
HYDROLOGY......SPANN
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