214
FXAK69 PAFG 181155
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A MUCH DRIER DAY BUT REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW.
- SHOWERS ON SATURDAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT NEITHER DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DROP
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER WET AND DREARY DAY AHEAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.10" TO 0.30", HIGHEST AROUND THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.
- NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE GUSTING
AROUND 30 TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WEAKENING ON ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS DEVELOP IN THE BERING STRAIT ON
SATURDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL. MOST
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF SAVOONGA.
- AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE
1000FT IN THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A COUPLE OF LINGERING SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES TODAY, BUT MOST
OF THE DAY IS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- EAST OF UTQIAGVIK LIKELY REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AS WELL AS IN THE BROOKS
RANGE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH ALONG THE COAST
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN ANAKTUVUK AND ATIGUN PASS.
- LIGHT SNOW DRIFTS TO THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
WET WEATHER REMAINS PREVALENT OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR WILL WARMER AND DRIER TODAY, MAKING IT THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, THE FIRST ONE
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, AND THE
SECOND ONE BEING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE
TWO DAYS WITH SUNDAY BEING MORE DRY THAN NOT, ESPECIALLY AROUND
FAIRBANKS. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY, THEN A
SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTS BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE BROOKS RANGE ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY,
MAKING FOR THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SPOTS NEAR THE TANANA VALLEY MAY REACH 60 DEGREES. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO COME WITH GUSTY GAP WINDS WHICH WILL BE
UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING, WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEING CAUSED BY A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NPAC AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS
TROUGH IS A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AK WHICH IS BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO WESTERN ALASKA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST, A REMNANT LOW IN THE
GULF WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD OVER THE AK RANGE, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY IN THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER
NOTEWORTHY FEATURE IN THE PATTERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING
INTO NORTHWESTERN AK BRINGING SNOW SQUALLS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND.
THESE SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE FORCED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AS LOW AS -15C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM, ~5C CHUKCHI
SEA. THIS ALLOWS FOR A VERY STRONG SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE
WHICH SUPPORTS BRIEF, HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS. EACH SNOW SQUALL MAY
BRING A QUICK COATING OF SNOW, BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND
CHUKCHI SEA COAST. IF THERE WERE TO BE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS, IT
WOULD BE IN THE TERRAIN OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, BUT WE ARE
ONLY EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE, TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE BROOKS RANGE TOMORROW. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY FROM WISEMAN
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS WISEMAN WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS,
BUT ATIGUN AND ANAKTUVUK PASS LIKELY RECEIVES 1 TO 3 INCHES. AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, THE SNOW MOVES TO THE BEAUFORT SEA
COAST WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY. MOVING
BACK SOUTH, THE WEATHER IS PRETTY QUIET ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY QUIET
FOR NORTHERN ALASKA BUT COOLER OVERALL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES, BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW. BY THURSDAY, WE WILL BE
WATCHING THE BERING AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF ANY LOW THAT DEVELOPS. BUT,
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A STORM WITH A MEAN STRENGTH AROUND
975MB IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
PATTERN ISN'T A LOCK FOR A LOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA AS THERE MAY BE A STRONG ARCTIC LOW TRYING TO BLOCK ANY
NORTHERN PROGRESSION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RIDGE GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST WHICH MAY SLOW ANY EASTERN PROGRESSION TOWARDS
ALASKA. ALSO, THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHERE THE LOW GOES. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD
LEAN TOWARDS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW (~975MB) TRACKING NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN AND GUSTY WIND TO THE WEST COAST. WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOVING FORWARD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MIN RHS MAINLY AROUND 45%
TO 55% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TANANA VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE TANANA VALLEY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE MEASURED IN THE HUNDREDTHS, SO THERE WON'T BE
MUCH TO EXPECT, ESPECIALLY IN THE TANANA VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER. AS OF 4
AM AKDT, RIVER LEVELS NEAR THE UPPER CHENA HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
BEGINNING TO COME DOWN. THE CHENA BELOW HUNTS CREEK IS STILL
RISING GRADUALLY BUT BEGINNING TO LEVEL OFF. THE CHENA BELOW
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS ALSO RISING STILL. NEAR THE LITTLE CHENA,
WATER LEVELS ARE STILL GRADUALLY RISING BUT IT WILL BE CRESTING
SOON AS THE RATE OF RISE HAS DROPPED OFF. PEAK WATER LEVELS
NEAR MOOSE CREEK DAM WILL LIKELY BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE
AREN'T ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING, BUT HIGH WATER
CAN LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN TYPICAL LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY CREST
BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DROP THEREAFTER.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ838-843-844.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ801-802-804-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ803-808-810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ806-816-
817-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ850-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ856.
KEY MESSAGES...BIANCO
SYNOPSIS.......BIANCO
SHORT TERM.....BIANCO
LONG TERM......BIANCO
COASTAL........BIANCO
FIRE WEATHER...BIANCO
HYDROLOGY......BIANCO
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