669
FXAK69 PAFG 092259
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- DRIER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WARMING TREND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AK RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS PEAK UPWARDS OF 60-70 MPH ON SATURDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WITH THE BERING LOW WEAKENING, SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
- 5" TO 10" OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE
KOBUK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, 2" TO 4" CAN BE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH
SATURDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE COOLING BACK INTO THE
20S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. SNOW
TOTALS OF 5-10 INCHES IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. POTENTIALLY
HIGHER FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
- SNOW SPREADS EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER ALONG THE COASTS, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45
MPH POSSIBLE IN ATIGUN AND ANAKTUVUK PASSES AND 30 MPH ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST.
SYNOPSIS
MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL IMPACTS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS
THE LOW IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH MAY HELP KEEP
WATER LEVELS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND ISOLATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, SPREADING EAST BY
SUNDAY. AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO 65 TO 75 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE START OF THE WEEKEND BUT WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK TO A
COOLING TREND BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PRIMARY FEATURE DRIVING WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA REMAINS A
THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA. WHILE SUSTAINED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PEAK COASTAL WATER LEVELS HAVE PASSED THEIR
INITIAL CRESTS, ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND NUDGES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, A FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL TRANSPORT A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE WEST
COAST, BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH OF THE KOBUK VALLEY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 10 AND 14 INCHES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.
EAST OF THE FRONT, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERING SEA LOW AND THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL INDUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING 60 TO
70 MPH ON SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL MAINTAIN WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR, DRIVING SATURDAY HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHERLY PASS WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH
ATIGUN AND ANAKTUVUK PASSES ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE BERING SEA LOW WILL WEAKEN TO BETWEEN 985 AND 990 MB
AS A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AS THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WANE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARD
FREEZING, MOISTURE WILL SLIP PAST THE ALASKA RANGE, BRINGING CHANCES
LIGHT SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND LIGHTER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN PINCH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW FROM
THE BERING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRIES TO
PROGRESS EAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA HELPING TO PUSH OUT THE REST
OF THE RIDGE THAT HAD SETTLED OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL SET
UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
THIS WILL STRETCH THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER LOW POTENTIALLY WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR BIT OF DISCREPANCY AMONGST THE MODELS AS THE ECMWF HAS THE
LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH BY THIS TIME IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS AND
THE CANADIAN. A BRIEF RIDGE MAY BUILD UP OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR, BUT WILL BE OVERRUN
BY A FRONT COMING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. WITH THE DIFFERENT
POSITIONING OF THE LOW, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE TIMING. OTHER THAN THAT, WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS, ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MAY
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE
NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE HAVE OCCURRED IN TELLER (AT LEAST 4 FT),
GOLOVIN BAY (3.94 FT), AND NOME (3.65 FT). WITH THE BERING SEA
LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, COASTAL CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME SOUTH WINDS LINGERING
ACROSS SOME AREAS, THERE MAY BE TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
WERE WATER LEVELS MAY REACH UP TO 2 FT ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH
TIDE LINE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THIS MAY RESULT IN VERY
MINOR BEACH EROSION IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ813-814.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ847.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ849.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ801-802-
805-806-810-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ803-807-
851-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ804-808-
809-855-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ808-809-855-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ809.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ855.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ857.
KEY MESSAGES...SATCHER
SYNOPSIS.......TWOMBLY
SHORT TERM.....SATCHER
LONG TERM......TWOMBLY
COASTAL........TWOMBLY
HYDROLOGY......TWOMBLY
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