932
FXAK69 PAFG 102134
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
134 PM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT FOR THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH.
- SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE AK RANGE WITH 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PARKS AND RICHARDSON HIGHWAYS THIS WEEKEND. THE BULK OF IT
OCCURS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF DENALI PARK AND SUNDAY
SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE INTERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AREA LIKELY SEEING SNOW.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTON SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND WINDS TO THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAINS
RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- A COOLING TREND IS IMMINENT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S TODAY LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
EXTEND TO COVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. CALMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SATURDAY, THE PATTERN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ALASKA IS PUSHED
OUT OF THE STATE SATURDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAR AT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE LOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AND IS NEAR 978 MILLIBARS AS OF MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE LOW HAS
WEAKENED IT HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS MORE ORGANIZED FEATURES CAUSING
WINDS TO WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST AND PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT GENERALLY LIGHTER. ONE OF THE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS A FRONT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE LOW GETS ENHANCED SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THIS ENHANCED 'FRONT' HELPS TO
PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA INTO CANADA AND
ALLOWS THE LOW TO FINALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF BEING STALLED IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
SINCE THE LOW WILL HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED BY THE TIME THIS
EASTWARD PUSH HAPPENS, THE CHANGE IN IMPACTS OVER THE WEST COAST
IS MINIMAL. WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING AND HIGH WATER LEVELS SLOWLY RECEDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVER THE INTERIOR, A LARGER CHANGE IN IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FULLY PUSHED OUT OF THE STATE.
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR
WITH HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE, INCLUDING THE HIGHEST POINTS OF THE
PARKS AND RICHARDSON HIGHWAYS, BUT IF THEY WARM MORE THAN
EXPECTED THEN SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS AMONGST MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. BY LATE TUESDAY A LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH PULLS WHAT REMAINS OF THE BERING SEA LOW INTO IT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, LATE TUESDAY, A
LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THAT WILL ABSORB WHAT REMAINS OF THE BERING SEA LOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHERN ALASKA IN A TROUGHING REGIME.
UNDER THIS TROUGHING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
THE BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN PLACE. WATER LEVELS
REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE MONDAY. EACH HIGH TIDE
ALONG FROM HOOPER BAY THROUGH THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST IS EXPECTED
TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. DUE TO THESE CONTINUED ELEVATED WATER LEVELS EROSION
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS VULNERABLE TO SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ848.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ850.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ803-
805-806-810-852-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ804-
807>809-851-854>856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR PKZ850.
KEY MESSAGES...STOKES
SYNOPSIS.......STOKES
SHORT TERM.....STOKES
LONG TERM......STOKES
COASTAL........STOKES
HYDROLOGY......STOKES
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