801
FXAK69 PAFG 111153
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
353 AM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE AROUND THE INTERIOR TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES IN ISABEL PASS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AK RANGE GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY.
- DRYING OUT AND COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
- NORTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BY ABOUT 1-2F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MOSTLY WEAK WIND TODAY BUT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, PEAKING AROUND 20-30 MPH FROM
UTQIAGVIK SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING BREEZY IN POINT
HOPE THEREAFTER.
- SNOW ENDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WHILE THE ARCTIC PLAINS
AND ESPECIALLY THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST SEES ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
- SNOW BLOSSOMS OVER THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LINGERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH.
- TEMPERATURES DROP WITH WIDESPREAD 20S/TEENS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY, REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S NEAR POINT HOPE.
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL BE ENDING IN THE BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING AFTER A BIT
OF AN OVERACHIEVING FRONT WHICH DROPPED SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH
SNOW YESTERDAY. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPE WHILE THE WEST COAST SEES BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE INTERIOR ALSO GETS IN ON SOME WET AND WHITE
WEATHER AS A WEAKENING FRONT FROM THE GULF BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS PERSIST IN
WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT SNOW
ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN STORY ON THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IS A DECAYING 514 DECAMETER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING. IT
CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA FROM THE BERING
AND NORTHERN PACIFIC, ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND LIGHT
RAIN. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW IS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST,
PROVIDING MODERATE SNOW, PREDOMINANTLY TO THE EASTERN AK RANGE
TODAY WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A BIT FARTHER NORTH, THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. THE VALLEYS WILL BE A BIT
MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW. ONE THING THAT MAY PROHIBIT SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS IS LINGERING DRY AIR, BUT AS WE WET-BULB, SNOW
SHOULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY WON'T ACCUMULATE IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES, BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE AN INCH OR
2. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL ALSO BE SEEING SOME SNOW ENDING IN THE
WAKE OF A BIT OF AN OVERACHIEVING FRONT YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE
ARCTIC PLAINS REMAINS DRY, BUT THERE MAY BE A STRAY SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWER. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY COMES ALONG
THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN DEGRADES AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WEAKENING LOW WILL HELP
DRIES THINGS OUT OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING, A FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
ARCTIC WITH A WEAK STRETCHING DEFORMATION ZONE ALLOWING FOR SNOW
TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE DROPPING NEXT WEEK
AS WELL. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL FORCE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, BUT SEASONABLY CHILLY, FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WE'LL NOTICE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE THE UPPER
30S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW 20S ON THE NORTH SLOPE BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE WEEK, BUT A GULF LOW
BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW NORTH OF FAIRBANKS ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT TRIES
TO SWING THROUGH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAIRBANKS
AREA, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AS WELL WITH POTENTIALLY AN INCH
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS, BUT WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING DEGRADES.
MOST WATER LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE LINE THROUGH MONDAY, THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL
AFTERWARDS.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY FOR AKZ831.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ837-
849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ848.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ850.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PKZ802-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR
PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ857.
BIANCO
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