228
FXAK69 PAFG 112201
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 PM AKDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE AROUND THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH UP TO 2" POSSIBLE.
- CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BREEZY WINDS WITH SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR MAY TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER.
- NORTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BY ABOUT 1-2F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MOSTLY WEAK WIND TODAY BUT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG
THE NW ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT, PEAKING AROUND 20-30 MPH FROM
UTQIAGVIK SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING BREEZY IN POINT
HOPE THEREAFTER.
- SNOW SHOWERS EXPAND ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS FROM THE LISBURNE
PENINSULA TO THE NE ARCTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2" EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES DROP WITH WIDESPREAD 20S/TEENS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY, REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S NEAR POINT HOPE.
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER A SERIES OF
FRONTS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS LIMITED SOME OF THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER ACROSS THE YK
DELTA AND INTERIOR VALLEYS, KEEPING PRECIPITATION MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO PROLONG THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A STRONGER LOW IS LOOKING TO SET UP IN
THE GULF, JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
COULD HELP BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE, YET UNEVENTFUL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TREK
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWS A BERING LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN AROUND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DRAPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
LOOKING UP AT 500MB, BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING. LOOKING EAST, A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS IS A DISORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT ARE PROVIDING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE ALONG THE VALLEY FLOORS, MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF FNSB. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1" AND 2" CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE ALASKA RANGE IS BLOCKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.
LOOKING BACK WEST, A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW IN THE BERING. THIS
PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH PROGRESSION. THE
MORE ABUNDANT SE-NW ORIENTED FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
KOBUK VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY GET BLOCKED BY ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE CHUKCHI. THE DEFORMATION CREATED
FROM THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT ROUND OF SNOWFALL,
STRETCHING FROM THE LISBURNE PENINSULA TO THE NE ARCTIC COAST,
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
CIRCLING BACK TO THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SE OUT OF SIBERIA AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE A NEW
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING, ALLOWING THE ONE
PREVIOUSLY OVER ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO FINALLY DIMINISH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE SEEN IN THE MODELS AT 850MB, WHICH WILL HELP
TO COOL TEMPERATURES TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMS. HOWEVER, THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST COMES TO A CLOSE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF, SOUTH
OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE
CHANCE FOR RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK IN BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EARLY THURSDAY, THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY EXTENDING
FROM CANADA OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS RIDGING IS THE RESULT OF HIGHER
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA GETTING PUSHED NORTH AS OUR BERING
SEA LOW IS PULLED SOUTH INTO A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SERVES AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR
HIGHER PRESSURE TO FILL INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS HIGHER PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY ALLOW THURSDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THIS TREND IS
QUICKLY CHANGED AS THE LOW IN THE GULF STARTS TO MOVE EAST LATE
THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGING EAST INTO CANADA. COOLER
ARCTIC AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND TREND COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGING THAT DEVELOPS
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW LONG SHOULD THE RIDGING PERSIST
AND HOW STRONG IT GETS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A STRONGER
RIDGE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REGION WARMER AND DRIER INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE RIDGE BEING
PUSHED OUT QUICKLY AND COLDER AIR MOVING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. OUR
FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS THIS LATTER SOLUTION WITH COOLER WEATHER.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NOT AS LIKELY, THAT THE RIDGE VERIFIES
AS THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT SOLUTION THOUGH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS, BUT WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING DEGRADES.
MOST WATER LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE LINE THROUGH MONDAY, THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL
AFTERWARDS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ850.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
MONDAY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR PKZ858.
KEY MESSAGES...TWOMBLY
SYNOPSIS.......TWOMBLY
SHORT TERM.....TWOMBLY
LONG TERM......STOKES
COASTAL........BIANCO
HYDROLOGY......TWOMBLY
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