803
FXAK69 PAFG 121140
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
340 AM AKDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR BETTLES AND COLDFOOT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
- A FEW MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR ANY ICE ACCRETION. THEN ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE COOLING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT TO WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST PLACES SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S THIS WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND MAINLY DRY OUT ON THURSDAY.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN THE BERING STRAIT, GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BY 1-2F EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH 1 INCH OR LESS EXPECTED,
IT MOVES TO THE ARCTIC PLAINS/KAKTOVIK TOMORROW WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW.
- BREEZY ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH, STRONGEST NEAR POINT HOPE.
- MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
WHILE THE WEATHER ISN'T NECESSARILY QUIET, IT IS MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL WITH AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE WEST COAST, SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR AND LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTH SLOPE.
TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DROPPING THIS WEEK, BUT MOST OF THE
AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE REMAINS WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR
HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S THEREAFTER. THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL BE THE COLDEST SPOT IN NORTHERN ALASKA AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
NOTABLE WEATHER IMPACT IS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE BERING
STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS MAY
BE AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE PATTERN LOOKS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY WITH A WEAKENING
520 DECAMETER LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT REGION AND WEAK
RIDGING/HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE A FRONT IN THE
ARCTIC DROPS INTO THE NORTH SLOPE. OVER THE INTERIOR, IT IS NOT
A CLEAN RIDGE, THERE ARE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. AS
THIS PATTERN PROGRESSES THIS WEEK, THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE, BECOMING A MASS OF DISORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO THE ALEUTIANS
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WON'T CHANGE MUCH AT THE SURFACE BESIDES
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT WHICH WILL GUST
UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE LARGELY DRYING THEREAFTER. OVER
IN THE INTERIOR, IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING
SKIES ALLOWING FELLOW INTERIOR ALASKANS TO PERHAPS GET A GOOD
GLIMPSE OF SOME AURORA. REGARDLESS, IT THEN CLOUDS BACK UP ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH MAY TRY TO BRING SNOW TO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
UP NORTH, AN ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO
BLOSSOM TODAY AND TOMORROW ON THE NORTH SLOPE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT, MOSTLY AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 IN THE PLAINS AND NEAR KAKTOVIK
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE TEENS BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST,
ESPECIALLY NEAR POINT HOPE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNEVENTFUL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF A
FEW GUSTY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND BERING
STRAIT. THE INTERIOR WILL GET A FRONT WHICH MOVES IN SOMETIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES NORTH, BUT PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A
FRONT BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH CAN LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS CHANCE THE REMNANT ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW THERE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE LONG TERM IS
LOOKING UNIMPACTFUL.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ807-
810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ858.
BIANCO
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