863
FXAK69 PAFG 122214
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
- A FEW MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR ANY ICE ACCRETION. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE COOLING, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MOST PLACES SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
THIS WEEK.
- NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND TANANA VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND MAINLY DRY OUT BY THURSDAY.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN THE BERING STRAIT, GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH, BY MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BY 1-2F EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE
A SLIGHTLY STEEPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NW ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH, STRONGEST
NEAR POINT HOPE. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE LISBURNE
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
- MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA
COAST AND BERING STRAIT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY
THE MID WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH IS PUSHING THE RIDGE NORTH,
WILL HELP BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE,
IF ANY AT ALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MORNING SHOWS A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS CONTINUING TO COVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ARE ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT
WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LOOKING AT 500MB, MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER COMES FROM A
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE BERING WHICH HAS SET UP BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. RESULTING FROM THIS HAS
BEEN A CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE WEAK
POCKETS OF ENERGY THAT ARE PROVIDING THE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING NORTH, A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH FROM THE CHUKCHI. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY COLLIDE WITH
THE WEAK POCKETS OF ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, RESULTING
IN A WEAK DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS. WITH THIS,
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTENT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OFF OF THE
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST.
MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF SIBERIA, MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC,
ALLOWING A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FIRST LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPED
BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING. HOWEVER, THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT
SHOWING TO HAVE MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE THIS FORECAST. THIS
SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF ENERGY WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA HELPING PUSH THE RIDGE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOWS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS COULD LEAD TO WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE REST
OF THE STATE COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, BUT ANOTHER
GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ON FRIDAY, MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SHOWS A TIGHTER GROUP OF MORE
ORGANIZED AND DEEPER LOWS, WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE LOWS
ARE WEAKER AND MORE BROADLY SPACED. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THAT ARISES
AS A RESULT APPEARS TO BE HOW ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC IS DIRECTED,
AND THE AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION PULLS BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS MUCH THE INTERIOR
NORTH OF THE TANANA VALLEY. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, DIRECTS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN EITHER CASE WOULD FALL AS SNOW, RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD IN
POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. WITH
THE WETTER EUROPEAN TRACK, THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE INTERIOR COULD
SEE AROUND 6 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH A 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE TANANA VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL SWELL BRIEFLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES INTO THE INTERIOR.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO MATTER LESS AS
WEATHER BECOMES CALMER. GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE STATE SHOULD
KEEPS SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ON SATURDAY WILL BE
FROM THE ENERGY MOVING NORTH THAT PASSES OVER, OR CLIPS DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL, THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, POTENTIALLY A FEW INCHES.
SUNDAY REMAINS BENIGN AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES THROUGH.
MONDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO A PAIR OF TROUGHS, ON COMING FROM THE
ARCTIC AND THE OTHER FROM THE PACIFIC. UNSURPRISINGLY, MODELS ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL. THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION AS THE
ARCTIC TROUGH IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER, ALLOWING IT TO LINK UP WITH
THE PACIFIC LOW AND DRAW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, RUN-TO-
RUN AGREEMENT ISN'T THE BEST FOR THIS FEATURE, AND LOOKING AT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO KEEP THE
PACIFIC LOW TRACK FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF. I WOULD LEAN
TOWARDS THE LESS IMPACTFUL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON IT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AND EVEN BELOW NORMALS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ811-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR PKZ851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR PKZ858.
KEY MESSAGES...TWOMBLY
SYNOPSIS.......TWOMBLY
SHORT TERM.....TWOMBLY
LONG TERM......TROYKE
COASTAL........TWOMBLY
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