237
FXAK69 PAFG 131132
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
332 AM AKDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS ANY LINGERING WET SPOTS
FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR, MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THE YUKON FLATS AND ARCTIC VILLAGE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH.
- ELSEWHERE, IT IS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING THURSDAY EVENING IN THE SE
INTERIOR, TRAVERSING TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER, AND 20S NORTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING IN THE YUKON/KUSKO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER OVERTAKES ALONG THE COAST BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KUSKO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN TOWARDS
THE YUKON VALLEY FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- A GRADUAL COOLING TREND PERSISTS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST,
MAINLY ENDING TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES DROP PRETTY NOTICEABLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST SPOTS OUTSIDE OF POINT HOPE WHICH
REMAINS NEAR 30.
- GUSTY WINDS PERSIST IN POINT HOPE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON
FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AS A LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE EASTERN BERING, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT ON THE NORTH SLOPE
HAS BROUGHT SOME SNOW WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROOKS RANGE
AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST. SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH
EXPECTED. THE INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE YUKON FLATS AND NEAR ARCTIC VILLAGE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK WITH
THE MOST NOTICEABLE DROPS BEING ON THE NORTH SLOPE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AT
500MB WITH A DECAYING LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA, WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTH SLOPE. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS ESSENTIALLY AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH AT THIS POINT, BUT THE EFFECTS ARE THE SAME AS
THERE ARE STILL SHOWERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERN ALASKA. AFTER THAT, IT SHOULD BE DRY ON THE COAST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS SNOW WILL BE FROM A LOW IN THE BERING WHICH SETTLES SOUTH
OF KODIAK AT NEARLY 975MB ON THURSDAY. WINDS IN THE INTERIOR
WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, STRONGEST IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR.
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, IT
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BUT THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LINGERING 500MB LOBES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH.
THESE WON'T BE HEAVY BUT MAY MAKE FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS. ONE
LOCATION WHERE WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
BETTLES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MIST, LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN (I LIKE
TO CALL IT SNIZZLE - SNOW AND DRIZZLE) WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. OTHER SPOTS THAT SEE
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR MIST MAY SEE A VERY LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE, BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY PATCHY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IN THE
GULF THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL BRING A FRONT TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALLOWS SNOW TO BLOSSOM. IN THE TANANA VALLEY, THERE
MAY BE A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT
DRIES OUT AND MOVES NORTH. FROM THERE, THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL ON FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF TANANA, BETTLES AND ARCTIC
VILLAGE BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST BY A DIGGING TROUGH. THIS FRONT
MAY BEING LIGHT SNOW TO THE TANANA VALLEY AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF THE VALLEY.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THE NORTH SLOPE IS FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL.
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR POINT HOPE AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT HAS ALREADY PROVIDED SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND
NEAR KAKTOVIK. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ABOUT 1-2 INCHES TO SHOW FOR IT. AFTERWARDS, IT'S MAINLY
DRY ON THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DROPPING THOUGH, WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY
WEDNESDAY. BY FRIDAY, A LOW IN THE GULF WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS MAY
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 0 DEGREES OR COLDER AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN
KAKTOVIK ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME MORE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING IN THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL GET PUSHED OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS TROUGH. THERE IS LOW CERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT, BUT IT WOULD LIKELY AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA, COLDEST
ON THE NORTH SLOPE. AN ARCTIC TROUGH LIKE THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH SLOPE BUT KEEP MOST OF THE INTERIOR
DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS ANOTHER FEATURE WE ARE MONITORING WHICH
CAN CHANGE THAT, AND IT IS A LOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC
TOWARDS THE EASTERN BERING OR WESTERN GULF MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AGAIN, THERE IS LOW CERTAINTY BUT THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR
WET WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALASKA AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS, THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING. THEN POTENTIALLY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WIND IN
WESTERN ALASKA, LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME AS WATER LEVELS DROP BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ811-816-
817-851-854-856.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ857.
BIANCO
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