102
FXAK69 PAFG 132340
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
340 PM AKDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE OUTSIDE OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING LIGHT OVERALL.
- A FRONT MOVING NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BREEZY E/NE
WINDS. WINDS WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A T-1" IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND 1-3" NORTH OF THE
TANANA VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS BREEZY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
- CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
MOST, AS A FRONT LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY
AND YUKON DELTA REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW.
- WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE KOBUK
VALLEY REGION.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE THIS EVENING, BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN POINT HOPE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE ON FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BUILDS IN, KEEPING SNOW
CHANCES AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS DROPPING TO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. COLDEST LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW
ZERO.
SYNOPSIS
AN OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR SEE A COOLING
TREND. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC
COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND UPTICK IN
NORTHEAST WINDS REGIONWIDE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER, WITH A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW IN THE BERING SEA, A LOW
NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN THE BEAUFORT SEA, AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS KODIAK AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE FIRST TWO LOWS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
TIMEFRAME COMING FROM THAT LOW MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EJECT A FRONT LIFTING NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW, IN
ADDITION TO SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN NORTHEAST WINDS. WIND GUSTS
WILL PEAK FOR MOST ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE AS STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. OUR LATEST
SNOWFALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, WITH
AROUND A T-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE TANANA VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR
SEE A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE WEEK, WITH COLDEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, WEATHER WILL SETTLE AS REMNANTS OF A TROUGH FROM
THE GULF WEAKEN AND EXIT ALASKA TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A WEAK RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST COMPETE FOR INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT, WE
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
SUNDAY WHILE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW STAY ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.
ON MONDAY, A TROUGH IN THE BERING PULLS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
IN THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY WITH KEEPING THE TRACK OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION
BROUGHT INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF ALASKA. CURRENT IMPACTS THROUGH
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE YUKON DELTA COAST ON MONDAY, WHICH TURN
NORTHERLY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PKZ807-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ816-817-
851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PKZ857.
KEY MESSAGES...MACKAY
SYNOPSIS.......MACKAY
SHORT TERM.....MACKAY
LONG TERM......TROYKE
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