925
FXAK69 PAFG 141155
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AKDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- DENSE FOG LINGERS IN THE INTERIOR BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS MORNING AS A FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AK RANGE.
- ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY MIDDAY AND LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY AS EARLY AS 7AM IN NORTHWAY/EAGLE, THEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN FAIRBANKS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH
RAIN IN THE TANANA VALLEY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS FROM FAIRBANKS
SOUTH/EAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS LIKELY ON THURSDAY, 20 TO 35 BELOW 1500FT
ELEVATION, AND 35 TO 45 MPH ABOVE 1500FT. AREAS OF MINOR
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- LIGHT SNOW LINGERS NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS ON FRIDAY THEN
SWINGS BACK THROUGH FAIRBANKS ON SATURDAY WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN SHOWERS, STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPROVING
GRADUALLY.
- WINDY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. FROM
THE BERING STRAIT TO YUKON DELTA COAST, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25-45
MPH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FROM MCGRATH NORTH/EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN AK THIS WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- REMAINING MOSTLY DRY UNTIL AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW
MOVES TO THE ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH,
SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
- REMAINING BREEZY IN POINT HOPE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN UTQIAGVIK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE DUE TO A LOW IN THE GULF
AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. EXPECT
WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE
INTERIOR SEES INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AROUND
OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND TRAVERSING
NORTHWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BACK EAST ON
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. OTHERWISE, THE
NORTH SLOPE REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
BROOKS RANGE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TREKKING NORTH ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. MINOR BLOWING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY AS WELL
AS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THERE AREN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS BUT THIS
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
500MB TELLS THE BULK OF THE STORY AS A STAGNANT PATTERN BEGINS
TO MOVE AGAIN THANKS TO A 519 DECAMETER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND TODAY. THIS LOW HAS A FAIRLY WEAK AND
ELONGATED FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
THIS FRONT WILL HELP CLEAR THE AIR OF FOG WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
STUBBORN IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ON THE
WEST COAST, THERE IS A FORMER LOW, WHICH IS NOW JUMBLED,
UNORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY KEEPING RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA. THE FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AK RANGE AND TREK SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY STRONG WINDS IN THE
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COAST. A GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, ALLOWING
FOR EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND 45 MPH
ABOVE 1500 FT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE TANANA VALLEY WHILE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE IS SNOW ABOVE 1000FT. AS THIS FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWEST, SNOW IS LIKELY FROM MCGRATH TO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS DUE TO AN
ARCTIC FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COOL THINGS
DOWN IN WESTERN AK ON FRIDAY WHILE KEEPING IT MOSTLY DRY,
MEANWHILE THE NORTH SLOPE REMAINS SEASONABLY CHILLY. SNOW IS
LIKELY ON THE NORTH SLOPE AS WELL WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GETTING BACK TO THE MERGING FRONTS, THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL FORCE THE WARM FRONT IN THE INTERIOR TO THE
EAST, ALLOWING FOR CHILLIER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM FAIRBANKS EAST, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL TOTALS AND
PHYSICAL COMPOSITION OF THE SNOW (DRY VS. WET) BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW, IT IS LOOKING LIKE 1 INCH OR LESS ON SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT NOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AS MOST SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE REMAINING SAFELY ABOVE ZERO,
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A LOW IN
THE BERING SEA, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHERN TRACK
NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND POTENTIALLY TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY, OR INTO
THE GULF WHICH WOULD FIT THE CURRENT PATTERN. IT DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN, SNOW AND SOME WIND IN SW AK AS WELL AS THE AK RANGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A STRONGER LOW WHICH TAKES A SIMILAR
TRACK TO THE CURRENT ONE ON TUESDAY. SO, IT COULD BE NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE INTERIOR AND A WARM FRONTAL BAND OF SNOW
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. I WOULD CONSIDER MY CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
A SOLID 60% OF OCCURRING, THERE IS A BIT OF SPREAD WITH
POTENTIAL LOW LOCATIONS, BUT IT LOOKS PROMISING FOR A STRONG LOW
(960-970MB) EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE GULF.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ839>841-
844.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ802>805-850-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ806-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ816-817-
851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ856.
BIANCO
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