524
FXAK69 PAFG 142328
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
328 PM AKDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES... CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
- ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY MIDDAY AND LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
- A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW LIKELY AS EARLY AS 7AM IN NORTHWAY/EAGLE, THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN FAIRBANKS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE TANANA
VALLEY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED FROM
FAIRBANKS SOUTH/EAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY, 20 TO 35 MPH BELOW 1500
FT IN ELEVATION, AND 35 TO 45 MPH ABOVE 1500 FT. AREAS OF MINOR
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- LIGHT SNOW LINGERS NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS ON FRIDAY, THEN SWINGS
BACK THROUGH FAIRBANKS ON SATURDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 1 INCH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN SHOWERS, STRATUS, & AREAS OF FOG PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPROVING, GRADUALLY.
- WINDY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO YUKON DELTA COAST, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25-45 MPH
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FROM MCGRATH NORTH/EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN AK THIS WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- REMAINING MOSTLY DRY UNTIL AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW MOVES TO THE
ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, SOME BLOWING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
- REMAINING BREEZY IN POINT HOPE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN UTQIAGVIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
SYNOPSIS
STUBBORN FOG STUCK AROUND THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING
FAIRBANKS, THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THAT HAS SLOWLY BEEN
MIXING-OUT VIA TURBULENT MIXING FROM SOLAR HEATING TODAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, THE WESTERN COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO RECEIVE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY FOR THE ARCTIC COAST FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INTERIOR CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
PICK-UP FOR THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE LIGHTER-SIDE APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. FOR THE BROOKS RANGE & THE NORTH SLOPE, A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH-IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY & FRIDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
FREEZING FOR THAT AREA, FOR LATE WORK-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, A BIT
OF BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY
IMPACTFUL IN INTENSITY, EXCEPT FOR AROUND THE UPPER ELEVATIONS ALONG
THE DALTON HWY, WHICH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE REDUCED.
THIS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR FOR
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SOME STUBBORN FOG STUCK
AROUND SPOTS AROUND THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING FAIRBANKS, THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY. THAT HAS SLOWLY BEEN THINNING-OUT/MIXING-OUT VIA
TURBULENT MIXING FROM SOLAR HEATING TODAY. FOR THE EASTERN PART OF
THE INTERIOR, SOME VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED FROM A VERY WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF ALASKA LOCATED NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND TODAY WILL GENERALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. IT WILL SEND ANOTHER STRONGER, BUT STILL
RELATIVELY WEAK, WARM FRONT ROTATING AROUND IT NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE & INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY &
FRIDAY, BRINGING IN MOISTURE FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN & LIGHT SNOWFALL. AS FAR IS PRECIPITATION-TYPE IS CONCERNED, AS
THE FRONT PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD, IT LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 1,000 FT, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
FAIRBANKS/TANANA VALLEY AREA FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE, & PRIMARILY SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION REACHES A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE TO THE MCGRATH AREA, IT LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE FRONT WEAKENS & STALLS-OUT WHILE AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MORE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR & THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE
DRIER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW & BLOWING SNOW ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE & ARCTIC COAST, BRINGING UP TO
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE IN STORE FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT FOR THE INTERIOR & OUR COASTAL AREAS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD & THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD. ON THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS & UP TO 45 MPH
FOR AREAS ABOVE 1,500 FT. ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL
BELOW FREEZING, THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENED OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE & ARCTIC COAST, CAUSING THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW TO
BLOW AROUND. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL ALSO CAUSE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING-IN FROM THE NW WILL PUSH THE WEAKENED WARM FRONT EASTWARD
THAT WILL BE STALLED-OUT OVER THE OVER THE INTERIOR, WHICH WILL
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR ON
AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES BACK
TO THE EASTERN & CENTRAL INTERIOR, INCLUDING FAIRBANKS, FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND
1 INCH OR LESS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD THAT WAS TALKED ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL/SEASONABLE VALUES OVER OUR
ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD & BEYOND, ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT ANY
APPROACHING BERING SEA LOWS WILL MISS OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH,
MOVING EASTWARD MORE TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY / ALASKA PENINSULA
AREA & THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS CONTINUES THE GENERAL
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THIS SOLUTION
LOOKS TO RESULT IN GENERALLY SIMILAR WEATHER WEATHER AS IS
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, A SE TO NW MOVING
WARM FRONT & SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT LOW LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN GULF, BRINGING BREEZIER/GUSTIER CONDITIONS &
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALASKA RANGE & THE INTERIOR AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL STARTING ON SUNDAY &
LOOK TO STAY THAT WAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT EXTREMELY COLD.
ASIDE FROM THE WEST COAST, TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND &
LASTING AT LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS IS INDICATED BY 850MB MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOUT 5 DEGREES CELSIUS COLDER
THAN CURRENT VALUES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...NO COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ802>805-850-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ806-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ807-812-814-815-858-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ811-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ816-817-
851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR
PKZ857.
KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS...CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERS
LONG TERM...CHAMBERS
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...CHAMBERS
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