864
FXAK69 PAFG 151438
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
638 AM AKDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND EAGLE SUMMITS. GUSTY WINDS AT ABOUT 30 TO
40 MPH ALONG WITH SNOWFALL COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1/2 OF A
MILE.
*THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 10 AM SATURDAY.
-ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, LEADING TO SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW COULD RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
*SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UP TO 1 INCH SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED
AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.
-COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S, AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH LOW STRATUS,
AND PATCHY MORNING FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
-GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY, RAPIDLY WEAKENING FRIDAY EVENING.
-AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR, AND LOWS IN THE 20S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR THE WEST COAST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO THE EASTERN NORTH
ARCTIC COAST FROM 4PM THURSDAY TO 4PM FRIDAY.
*WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH.
*TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1 INCH
BY FRIDAY.
-LIGHT SNOW COULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH SLOPE/ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
-WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY, WITH THEM PEAKING AT ABOUT 35
TO 40 MPH ON FRIDAY, RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
*VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SYNOPSIS
A GULF LOW WILL APPROACH MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY MORNING, AND
WITH IT BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR OF ABOUT 30
MPH THAT LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERY
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
FOCUSED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS, EAGLE SUMMITS, AND
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
VISIBILITY REACHING 1/2 OF A MILE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. ANOTHER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING WITH IT MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF ALASKA. JUST SOUTHEAST OF THIS RIDGE, A 972MB LOW CIRCULATES
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN ALASKA ON THURSDAY IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SUSTAINED
RIDGE, AND SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR
WHILE THE RIDGE SUBSIDES.
AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY, IT WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE INTERIOR, AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
OF ABOUT 35 MPH TO HIGHER ELEVATION ABOVE 1500FT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND WINDS CAN RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITY
TO ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TO ABOUT 1/2 OF A MILE.
THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING, NORTHEASTERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE SPREAD TOWARDS THE NORTH ARCTIC COASTLINE, PEAKING AT ABOUT
30MPH ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A CONSISTENT LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, WHICH COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW,
REDUCING VISIBILITY.
AS THE STORM IN THE GULF CONTINUES ITS APPROACH ON FRIDAY, IT
WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN TO A 990MB LOW BY THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH MOST OF THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WEAKENING WITH
IT. AS THE STORM DISSIPATES, IT WILL LEAVE A TRAPPED MOISTURE
WITHIN THE INTERIOR. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT, FROM THE
ARCTIC, WILL DEVELOP, ORIENT ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST,
AND PROGRESS EAST. THE REMAINING MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
STORM, WILL BE DIRECTLY IN THE PATH OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FRONT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOWFALL THAT WILL PERSIST IN THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS STORM INVOLVE ITS SPECIFIC
LOCATION WITHIN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN
DEMONSTRATING THIS SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER TO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM GETTING CHINOOKED BY THE ALASKA
RANGE, WHICH IN TURN, WOULD REDUCE THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
TOTALS IN THE TANANA VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS
MORE SPREAD IN THE POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME MEMBERS
TRENDING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. IF THIS
SOLUTION PROVES TRUE, THERE WOULD BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AND ALLOW HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE TANANA VALLEY.
CURRENTLY, BETWEEN MODEL RUNS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN
MORE OF A CHANGE IN TREND AND SPREAD ON THIS STORMS DEVELOPMENT.
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTING MORE OF THE LOWS IN THE WESTERN
GULF PHASING WITH THE LOWS IN THE EAST, WHILE THE MOST RECENT
RUNS SEEM TO NOT INDICATE THAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW MEMBERS. THE
ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE STORM HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTING BETWEEN
RUNS, WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES SOLUTION.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEMONSTRATES BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS, WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO SPOT MAJOR
CHANGES WHEN COMPARING THE MOST RECENT RUNS TO PREVIOUS ONES.
GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS, IT WOULD SEEM THAT MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE A RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ALASKA ON FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS IN THE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE DROPPING TO THE LOWER
20S, AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE ARE EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS, AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA.
ON MONDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO FOLLOW THIS PATH,
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC. THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL THEN INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW AND
PHASE INTO A COMBINED NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, FOLLOWING MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
THIS STORMS TRACK. ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION,
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH ALASKA ON TUESDAY, AND
LEAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
MOST RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE RUN SHOWS THIS STORM MOVING EASTWARD
OVER BRISTOL BAY, AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION VERIFIES, THEN
WE WILL POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FOR THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR, WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WILL BE
MUCH DRIER. THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSENSUS IS REACHED,
THE EXACT IMPACTS REMAIN UNCLEAR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR AKZ804-805.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR AKZ832-834.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ801-802-806-
811-816-817-850-851-853-854-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ803-804-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ807-814.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ812-815-858-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY
FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ861.
SFD
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