796
FXAK69 PAFG 152206
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND EAGLE SUMMITS. GUSTY WINDS AT ABOUT 30 TO
40 MPH ALONG WITH SNOWFALL COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1/2 OF A
MILE AT TIMES.
*THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 10 AM SATURDAY.
-ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, LEADING TO SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW COULD RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
*SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UP TO 1 INCH SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED
AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS.
-COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS DROP INTO
THE LOW 30S, AND LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH LOW STRATUS,
AND PATCHY MORNING FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
-GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY, RAPIDLY WEAKENING FRIDAY EVENING.
-TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR THE WEST
COAST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO THE EASTERN NORTH
ARCTIC COAST FROM 4PM THURSDAY TO 4PM FRIDAY.
*WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH.
*TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1 INCH
BY FRIDAY.
-LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH SLOPE/ARCTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
-WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY, WITH THEM PEAKING AT ABOUT 35
TO 40 MPH ON FRIDAY, RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
*VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SYNOPSIS
A MESSY PATTERN OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
NORTHERN ALASKA'S WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ELEVATED INTERIOR AREAS AND PARTS OF
THE ARCTIC COAST MAY SEE PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THURSDAY, THE PATTERN
CONSISTS OF RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT IN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTH POLE AND
NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE 3 FEATURES AND THEIR
INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA, THE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST INTO CANADA AND SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR
BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN HOW MESSY THE
SYSTEM BECOMES AS IT PASSES OVER THE ALASKA RANGE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT CONSIDERABLE
GAPS WHERE RAIN AND SNOW FALLS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS WITH UPSLOPE
MOVEMENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
NOTABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND TOWARDS CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO FILL THE VOID BEHIND
IT LEADING TO CLEARER AND CALMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY A LOW ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER NORTH POLE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA FROM THE WEST. IT AND THE WEAK RIDGE
PRESS AGAINST EACH OTHER. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOW FROM
GETTING MUCH CLOSER TO THE ARCTIC COAST LIMITING IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, LATE SUNDAY,
TROUGHING PUSHES AGAINST A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. CHANCES OF SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE AS A LOW APPROACHES THE CHUKCHI SEA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN TIP OF
THE ALEUTIANS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES EAST TOWARDS BRISTOL
BAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PULL THIS LARGER SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY ENABLING THE OVERALL SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT MODELS ARE EXPECTING THIS LOW TO MAINTAIN ITS
ORGANIZATION BETTER THAN THE LOW FROM THIS CURRENT WEEK, WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. ACCUMULATIONS AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM
FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
THE STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO CAUSE ANY CONSIDERABLE WATER
LEVEL RISES ALONG THE COAST FROM HOOPER BAY NORTH.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ804-805.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ832-
834.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ801-802-806-
807-814-853-854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ803-804-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ805-
852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ811-850-857.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ812-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY
FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR PKZ860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
FRIDAY FOR PKZ861.
KEY MESSAGES...DONNER/STOKES
SYNOPSIS.......STOKES
SHORT TERM.....STOKES
LONG TERM......STOKES
COASTAL........STOKES
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